2. Bundesliga · 2026-10-11T11:30:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 7

St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC

2 – 0 Full time

32′			Abdoulie Ceesay
34′			Sandro Tremoulet
48′			Marvin Wanitzek
51′			Lars Ritzka
68′			Youssoupha NiangMartijn Kaars
68′			Rafael Pinto PedrosaKevin Wiethaup
70′			Viktor BerghJason Ponente-Ramirez
70′			Sandro TremouletSebastian Jung
70′			Louey Ben FarhatLilian Egloff
73′			Abdoulie CeesayRicky-Jade Jones
73′			Mathias RasmussenSamuel Klein
80′			Danyal Hakan ZorTim Civeja
82′			Lars RitzkaAdam Dźwigała
82′			Connor MetcalfeBranimir Hrgota
87′			Branimir Hrgota

Millerntor-Stadion, St. Pauli BurgerReferee: Lukas Benen

St. Pauli

52%

Draw

24%

Karlsruher SC

24%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

13	Shots	12
6	Shots on target	5
47	Possession %	53
6	Corners	9
12	Fouls	15
4	Offsides	2
5	Saves	4
322	Accurate passes	375

St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	St. Pauli	Draw	Karlsruher SC
Model	42.1%	27.5%	30.4%
Market	55.3%	22.3%	22.3%
Final	52.0%	23.6%	24.3%
Edge	-3.3%	+1.3%	+2.0%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

93%

2+ goals

78%

3+ goals

52%

No goals

St. Pauli and Karlsruher SC expected goals

St. Pauli

1.52

Karlsruher SC

1.26

Total expected goals: 2.78

St. Pauli and Karlsruher SC attack and defence ratings

St. Pauli

Attack

0.76 -24%

Defence

1.09 +9%

Karlsruher SC

Attack

0.87 -13%

Defence

1.21 +21%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC: result vs prediction

St. Pauli 2 – 0 Karlsruher SC

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick	✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

2. Bundesliga

FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern — team news & stats · 2026-10-09
Eintracht Braunschweig vs Holstein Kiel — team news & stats · 2026-10-09
1. FC Magdeburg v Hannover 96 — match page · 2026-10-10
Darmstadt vs Energie Cottbus · 2026-10-10
VfL Osnabrück vs Dynamo Dresden · 2026-10-10
1. FC Nürnberg vs Wolfsburg — team news & stats · 2026-10-10
Hertha BSC v SpVgg Greuther Fürth — match page · 2026-10-11
Bochum vs Arminia Bielefeld · 2026-10-11

Before and after this match

St. Pauli, previous: Energie Cottbus vs St. Pauli prediction
St. Pauli, next: Hannover 96 vs St. Pauli: odds and pick
Karlsruher SC, previous: Karlsruher SC vs 1. FC Nürnberg prediction
Karlsruher SC, next: Karlsruher SC – Darmstadt, 2026-10-18

St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	St. Pauli	52.0%	1.92	-3.3%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	52.5%	1.91	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	57.1%	1.75	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	76.4%	1.31	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	57.9%	1.73	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	St. Pauli	52.0%
	Draw	23.6%
	Karlsruher SC	24.3%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	52.5%
	Under 2.5	47.5%
Both teams to score	Yes	57.1%
	No	42.9%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	75.7%
	12 (either side)	76.4%
	X2 (draw or away)	48.0%
Handicap -1	St. Pauli win	21.4%
	Push (exactly one goal)	20.7%
	Loss	57.9%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	13.1%
	2-1	9.0%
	1-0	8.3%

St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC stats

St. Pauli and Karlsruher SC recent form

newest first

St. Pauli	DWDLLD
Karlsruher SC	LLDLWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

St. Pauli and Karlsruher SC going into this match

league record before kick-off

St. Pauli record

They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.

Karlsruher SC record

They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.

St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4St. Pauli wins 4Draws 2Karlsruher SC wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2025-07-20	St. Pauli	Karlsruher SC	Friendlies Clubs	6-1
2024-04-06	Karlsruher SC	St. Pauli	2. Bundesliga	2-1
2023-10-28	St. Pauli	Karlsruher SC	2. Bundesliga	2-1
2023-05-28	St. Pauli	Karlsruher SC	2. Bundesliga	1-1
2022-11-12	Karlsruher SC	St. Pauli	2. Bundesliga	4-4
2022-03-05	St. Pauli	Karlsruher SC	2. Bundesliga	3-1
2021-09-25	Karlsruher SC	St. Pauli	2. Bundesliga	1-3
2021-03-06	Karlsruher SC	St. Pauli	2. Bundesliga	0-0
2020-11-08	St. Pauli	Karlsruher SC	2. Bundesliga	0-3
2020-05-30	Karlsruher SC	St. Pauli	2. Bundesliga	1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 55.3%, draw 22.3%, away 22.3%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	1.69	4.20	4.16
Bet365	1.70	4.10	4.10
BetVictor	1.67	4.20	4.20
Betano	1.78	4.35	4.30
Betfair	1.67	4.20	4.33
Dafabet	1.74	4.20	4.20
Marathonbet	1.67	4.20	4.20
Pinnacle	1.74	4.37	4.31
SBO	1.67	3.64	3.65
William Hill	1.70	4.00	4.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.69 —

X 4.20 —

2 4.20 ▲ +0.06

11 snapshots recorded, from 2026-10-06T08:10:02Z.