St. Pauli
vs
Karlsruher SC
Garuda Lions Prediction: St. Pauli
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC
| Probability | St. Pauli | Draw | Karlsruher SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.8% | 27.6% | 30.6% |
| Market | 55.2% | 22.3% | 22.5% |
| Final | 51.9% | 23.6% | 24.5% |
| Edge | -13.4% | +5.3% | +8.1% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC match preview
St. Pauli faces Karlsruher SC in a 2. Bundesliga matchup on October 11, 2026, with model probabilities suggesting a 42% chance of a St. Pauli victory, a 31% likelihood for Karlsruher SC, and a 28% chance of a draw. The expected goals indicate St. Pauli at 1.51 and Karlsruher SC at 1.26, reflecting a competitive encounter.
Recent form shows St. Pauli with a mixed record of D-W-D-L-L-D, while Karlsruher SC has struggled, posting L-L-D-L-W-D in their last six matches. The most likely scoreline is projected at 2-1 in favor of St. Pauli, with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% probability that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this analysis is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
St. Pauli and Karlsruher SC expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.78
St. Pauli and Karlsruher SC attack and defence ratings
St. Pauli
Karlsruher SC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern — team news & stats
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs Holstein Kiel — team news & stats
- 1. FC Magdeburg v Hannover 96 — match page
- Darmstadt vs Energie Cottbus
- VfL Osnabrück vs Dynamo Dresden
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs Wolfsburg — team news & stats
- Hertha BSC v SpVgg Greuther Fürth — match page
- Bochum vs Arminia Bielefeld
Before and after this match
St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | St. Pauli | 51.9% | 1.93 | -13.4% | 1.75 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.5% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.4% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.1% | 1.72 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | St. Pauli | 51.9% |
| Draw | 23.6% | |
| Karlsruher SC | 24.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.1% |
| No | 42.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | St. Pauli win | 21.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 58.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | |
| 1-0 | 8.2% |
St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC stats
St. Pauli and Karlsruher SC recent form
| St. Pauli |
DWDLLD |
| Karlsruher SC |
LLDLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
St. Pauli and Karlsruher SC season so far
St. Pauli record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
Karlsruher SC record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.2%, draw 22.3%, away 22.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.69 | 4.20 | 4.16 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 4.00 | 4.10 |
| BetVictor | 1.67 | 4.10 | 4.10 |
| Betano | 1.75 | 4.20 | 4.15 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| Dafabet | 1.74 | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.67 | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.71 | 4.33 | 4.23 |
| SBO | 1.63 | 3.74 | 3.72 |
| William Hill | 1.73 | 3.90 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .