Hertha BSC
vs
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Garuda Lions Prediction: Hertha BSC
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
| Probability | Hertha BSC | Draw | SpVgg Greuther Fürth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.0% | 22.6% | 20.5% |
| Market | 59.7% | 20.9% | 19.4% |
| Final | 59.0% | 21.3% | 19.7% |
| Edge | -2.7% | +1.6% | +1.1% |
Why Hertha BSC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.12 vs 1.22.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.60, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth match preview
Hertha BSC enters this match against SpVgg Greuther Fürth with a strong recent form, recording four wins and a draw in their last six matches. In contrast, Greuther Fürth has struggled, managing only one win in their last six games, accompanied by two draws and three losses. The model probabilities favor Hertha BSC significantly at 57%, with a draw at 23% and Greuther Fürth at 20%.
The expected goals indicate a dominant performance from Hertha BSC, with an expected 2.11 goals compared to Greuther Fürth's 1.22. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1, occurring at a rate of 10%. Additionally, there is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% probability that both teams will score in the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.34
Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack and defence ratings
Hertha BSC
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern — team news & stats
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs Holstein Kiel — team news & stats
- 1. FC Magdeburg v Hannover 96 — match page
- Darmstadt vs Energie Cottbus
- VfL Osnabrück vs Dynamo Dresden
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs Wolfsburg — team news & stats
- Bochum vs Arminia Bielefeld
- St. Pauli v Karlsruher SC — match page
Before and after this match
Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hertha BSC | 59.0% | 1.70 | -2.7% | 1.60 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.6% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.8% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.3% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.9% | 2.33 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hertha BSC | 59.0% |
| Draw | 21.3% | |
| SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 19.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.8% |
| No | 37.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Hertha BSC win | 35.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.5% | |
| Loss | 42.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 2-0 | 8.0% |
Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth stats
Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth recent form
| Hertha BSC |
WWWWDW |
| SpVgg Greuther Fürth |
DDLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth season so far
Hertha BSC record
- They have won 5 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Hertha BSC | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 2. Bundesliga | 2-1 |
| 2025-12-12 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Hertha BSC | 2. Bundesliga | 3-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 59.7%, draw 20.9%, away 19.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.58 | 4.50 | 4.68 |
| Bet365 | 1.57 | 4.10 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.55 | 4.33 | 4.60 |
| Betano | 1.60 | 4.45 | 4.90 |
| Betfair | 1.55 | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.59 | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.56 | 4.50 | 4.75 |
| Pinnacle | 1.59 | 4.57 | 4.92 |
| SBO | 1.52 | 3.98 | 4.24 |
| William Hill | 1.57 | 4.20 | 4.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .