Arminia Bielefeld
vs
VfL Osnabrück
Garuda Lions Prediction: Arminia Bielefeld
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabrück overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabrück
| Probability | Arminia Bielefeld | Draw | VfL Osnabrück |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.6% | 22.4% | 25.0% |
| Market | 53.5% | 23.9% | 22.6% |
| Final | 53.3% | 23.5% | 23.2% |
| Edge | -0.9% | -1.5% | +2.4% |
Why Arminia Bielefeld
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.15 vs 1.46.
Best available price on the pick: 1.79, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabrück match preview
Arminia Bielefeld is favored to win against VfL Osnabrück, with a 56% probability according to our model. The expected goals for Bielefeld stand at 2.14, while Osnabrück is projected to score 1.46, indicating a likely competitive match. The most probable scoreline is 2-1, occurring at a rate of 9%.
Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Bielefeld recording one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five matches. In contrast, Osnabrück has had two draws, one win, and two losses in the same timeframe. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 70%, and both teams scoring is projected at 69%, suggesting an open game.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Arminia Bielefeld and VfL Osnabrück expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.61
Arminia Bielefeld and VfL Osnabrück attack and defence ratings
Arminia Bielefeld
VfL Osnabrück
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC
- Energie Cottbus vs 1. FC Nürnberg
- Wolfsburg v FC Heidenheim — match page
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Eintracht Braunschweig
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern v Bochum — match page
- Hannover 96 vs St. Pauli — team news & stats
- Dynamo Dresden v 1. FC Magdeburg — match page
- Karlsruher SC vs Darmstadt — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabrück markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arminia Bielefeld | 53.3% | 1.88 | -0.9% | 1.79 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.9% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.6% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.8% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.4% | 2.11 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arminia Bielefeld | 53.3% |
| Draw | 23.5% | |
| VfL Osnabrück | 23.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.6% |
| No | 31.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Arminia Bielefeld win | 32.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.3% | |
| Loss | 47.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | |
| 2-2 | 6.7% |
Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabrück stats
Arminia Bielefeld and VfL Osnabrück recent form
| Arminia Bielefeld |
WDLDLD |
| VfL Osnabrück |
DDLWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Arminia Bielefeld and VfL Osnabrück season so far
Arminia Bielefeld record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
VfL Osnabrück record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabrück head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-15 | VfL Osnabrück | Arminia Bielefeld | 3. Liga | 0-1 |
| 2024-10-20 | Arminia Bielefeld | VfL Osnabrück | 3. Liga | 3-1 |
| 2020-08-15 | Arminia Bielefeld | VfL Osnabrück | Friendlies Clubs | 1-1 |
| 2020-05-17 | Arminia Bielefeld | VfL Osnabrück | 2. Bundesliga | 1-1 |
| 2019-10-07 | VfL Osnabrück | Arminia Bielefeld | 2. Bundesliga | 0-1 |
| 2015-02-18 | VfL Osnabrück | Arminia Bielefeld | 3. Liga | 0-4 |
| 2014-08-09 | Arminia Bielefeld | VfL Osnabrück | 3. Liga | 1-2 |
| 2013-05-11 | Arminia Bielefeld | VfL Osnabrück | 3. Liga | 1-0 |
| 2012-11-17 | VfL Osnabrück | Arminia Bielefeld | 3. Liga | 0-0 |
| 2011-12-10 | Arminia Bielefeld | VfL Osnabrück | 3. Liga | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabrück odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 53.7%, draw 23.8%, away 22.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.75 | 3.94 | 4.12 |
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 3.70 | 4.20 |
| BetVictor | 1.70 | 3.90 | 4.10 |
| Betano | 1.78 | 3.95 | 4.25 |
| Betfair | 1.70 | 4.20 | 4.33 |
| Dafabet | 1.78 | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.73 | 3.94 | 4.15 |
| Pinnacle | 1.79 | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| SBO | 1.70 | 3.52 | 3.64 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.75 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .