Garuda Lions
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2. Bundesliga · ·Matchday 9

VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth

Garuda Lions Prediction: VfL Osnabrück

2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability

  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — VfL Osnabrück is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bet on VfL Osnabrück

Stadion an der Bremer Brücke, OsnabruckReferee: Justin Joel Hasmann

VfL Osnabrück 41%
Draw 26%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 33%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance VfL Osnabrück wins
41%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
94%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
62%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
2 – 1
9% of simulated outcomes

VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth overview

Garuda Lions analysis: VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityVfL OsnabrückDrawSpVgg Greuther Fürth
Model38.4%26.3%35.2%
Market41.6%25.9%32.5%
Final40.8%26.0%33.2%
Edge-0.8%+0.1%+0.7%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.1% per unit staked (our 40.8% × 2.30 − 1).

VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth match preview

VfL Osnabrück faces SpVgg Greuther Fürth in a matchup where the probabilities suggest a closely contested game. According to our model, VfL Osnabrück has a 38% chance of winning, while SpVgg Greuther Fürth stands at 35%, with a draw at 26%. The expected goals are relatively even, with VfL Osnabrück at 1.55 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 1.48, indicating a potential for a competitive encounter.

Recent form shows VfL Osnabrück with a record of L-D-D-L-W-L, while SpVgg Greuther Fürth has seen a mix of results with W-L-D-D-L-W. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of VfL Osnabrück, occurring at a rate of 9%. Additionally, there is a 58% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance that both teams will score.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

VfL Osnabrück ↓ / SpVgg Greuther → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 12% 8% 2 9% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 82%
3+ goals 58%
No goals 6%

VfL Osnabrück and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected goals

VfL Osnabrück 1.55
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.48

Total expected goals: 3.04

VfL Osnabrück and SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack and defence ratings

VfL Osnabrück

Attack 1.00 +0%
Defence 1.18 +18%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

Attack 0.97 -3%
Defence 0.94 -6%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

2. Bundesliga

Before and after this match

VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 VfL Osnabrück 40.8% 2.45 -0.8% 2.30
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 58.5% 1.71 — —
Both teams to score Yes 62.0% 1.61 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.0% 1.35 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 61.6% 1.62 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2VfL Osnabrück40.8%
Draw26.0%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth33.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.558.5%
Under 2.541.5%
Both teams to scoreYes62.0%
No38.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)66.8%
12 (either side)74.0%
X2 (draw or away)59.2%
Handicap -1VfL Osnabrück win19.5%
Push (exactly one goal)19.0%
Loss61.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.2%
2-18.6%
1-28.2%
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VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth stats

VfL Osnabrück and SpVgg Greuther Fürth recent form

newest first
VfL Osnabrück LDDLWL
SpVgg Greuther Fürth WLDDLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

VfL Osnabrück and SpVgg Greuther Fürth season so far

league record

VfL Osnabrück record

  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth record

  • They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 41.6%, draw 25.9%, away 32.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.27 3.58 2.86
Bet365 2.20 3.70 2.88
BetVictor 2.20 3.60 2.80
Betano 2.30 3.70 2.92
Betfair 2.25 3.70 2.88
Dafabet 2.25 3.70 2.95
Marathonbet 2.25 3.58 2.85
Pinnacle 2.26 3.62 3.03
SBO 2.10 3.29 2.70
William Hill 2.20 3.30 2.90
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Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.25 ▲ +0.04
X 3.62 ▲ +0.02
2 2.88 ▲ +0.03

11 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 VfL Osnabrück Predicted score 2 – 1 Low Bet Now
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