1. FC Nürnberg
vs
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Garuda Lions Prediction: 1. FC Nürnberg
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — 1. FC Nürnberg is the favourite, not a value bet.
1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern overview
Garuda Lions analysis: 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern
| Probability | 1. FC Nürnberg | Draw | 1. FC Kaiserslautern |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.9% | 32.1% | 27.0% |
| Market | 47.6% | 24.8% | 27.6% |
| Final | 45.9% | 26.6% | 27.5% |
| Edge | -1.7% | +1.8% | -0.2% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.04, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.3% per unit staked (our 45.9% × 2.04 − 1).
1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern match preview
1. FC Nürnberg faces 1. FC Kaiserslautern in a 2. Bundesliga clash, with kickoff set for October 24, 2026. According to our model, 1. FC Nürnberg has a 41% probability of winning, while a draw stands at 32% and 1. FC Kaiserslautern at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Nürnberg, occurring with a 13% likelihood. Expected goals are 1.19 for Nürnberg and 0.93 for Kaiserslautern, indicating a slight edge for the home side.
In terms of recent form, 1. FC Nürnberg has recorded two wins and three draws in their last six matches, whereas 1. FC Kaiserslautern has three wins, two draws, and one loss. The head-to-head record shows 1. FC Nürnberg with one win and one draw against Kaiserslautern, who have not secured a victory in their last two encounters. Both teams have a 43% chance of scoring, while the probability of over 2.5 goals is 36%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1. FC Nürnberg and 1. FC Kaiserslautern expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.12
1. FC Nürnberg and 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack and defence ratings
1. FC Nürnberg
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Bochum vs Wolfsburg
- Darmstadt vs St. Pauli
- Hertha BSC v Arminia Bielefeld — match page
- 1. FC Magdeburg v Karlsruher SC — match page
- FC Heidenheim vs Energie Cottbus — team news & stats
- Holstein Kiel v Dynamo Dresden — match page
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hannover 96 — team news & stats
- VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Before and after this match
1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 45.9% | 2.18 | -1.7% | 2.04 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.5% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.6% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.4% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.1% | 1.69 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 45.9% |
| Draw | 26.6% | |
| 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 27.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.4% |
| No | 56.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | 1. FC Nürnberg win | 18.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 59.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.6% |
| 0-0 | 13.4% | |
| 1-0 | 13.0% |
1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern stats
1. FC Nürnberg and 1. FC Kaiserslautern recent form
| 1. FC Nürnberg |
DDWWDW |
| 1. FC Kaiserslautern |
WDWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
1. FC Nürnberg and 1. FC Kaiserslautern season so far
1. FC Nürnberg record
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.9 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 2.3 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
1. FC Kaiserslautern record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 2. Bundesliga | 3-0 |
| 2025-10-26 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 1. FC Nürnberg | 2. Bundesliga | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.6%, draw 24.7%, away 27.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.95 | 3.75 | 3.44 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.70 | 3.40 |
| BetVictor | 1.93 | 3.75 | 3.30 |
| Betano | 2.00 | 3.80 | 3.45 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.90 | 3.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.04 | 3.85 | 3.35 |
| Marathonbet | 1.93 | 3.75 | 3.44 |
| Pinnacle | 2.02 | 3.90 | 3.36 |
| SBO | 1.96 | 3.29 | 2.99 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .