Garuda Lions
Today
DFB Pokal · Full time ·Round of 32

Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg

5 – 2 Full time

13′Rafael Lubach
30′Sigurd Haugen
41′Edmond Tapsoba
45′Malik TillmanIbrahim Maza
45′Afonso MoreiraPatrik Schick
45′Robert AndrichEqui Fernández
49′Edmond Tapsoba
60′Sigurd HaugenPiet Scobel
60′Andrea CeresoliEric Porstner
68′Nathan TellaJarell Quansah
70′Patrik Schick
73′Equi Fernández
76′Tim JanischGiannis Masouras
76′Rafael LubachRayan Ghrieb
78′Jonas Hofmann
81′Giannis Masouras
86′Lucas Vázquez
87′Javier FernándezMarc Kornwachs Barjuan
87′Jonas HofmannVictor Okoh Boniface
89′Lucas Vázquez

BayArena, Bayer LeverkusenReferee: Felix Zwayer

Bayer Leverkusen 62%
Draw 16%
1. FC Nürnberg 22%

Confidence: Medium  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

25 Shots 5
10 Shots on target 3
60 Possession % 40
13 Corners 3
10 Fouls 8
2 Offsides 0
1 Saves 5
541 Accurate passes 350

Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityBayer LeverkusenDraw1. FC Nürnberg
Model16.3%22.3%61.4%
Market77.2%13.9%8.9%
Final62.0%16.0%22.0%
Edge-15.2%+2.1%+13.1%

Confidence: Medium · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Bayer Leverkusen

  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Bayer Leverkus ↓ / 1. FC Nürnberg → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 5% 8% 10% 7% 6% 1 11% 10% 7% 6% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 83%
3+ goals 60%
No goals 5%

Bayer Leverkusen and 1. FC Nürnberg expected goals

Bayer Leverkusen 1.02
1. FC Nürnberg 2.08

Total expected goals: 3.10

Bayer Leverkusen and 1. FC Nürnberg attack and defence ratings

Bayer Leverkusen

Attack 1.21 +21%
Defence 0.77 -23%

1. FC Nürnberg

Attack 1.06 +6%
Defence 0.79 -21%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg: result vs prediction

Bayer Leverkusen 5 – 2 1. FC Nürnberg

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Round of 32 fixtures

DFB Pokal

Before and after this match

Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Bayer Leverkusen 62.0% 1.61 -15.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 59.5% 1.68 — —
Both teams to score Yes 56.3% 1.78 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 84.0% 1.19 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 83.1% 1.20 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Bayer Leverkusen62.0%
Draw16.0%
1. FC Nürnberg22.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.559.5%
Under 2.540.5%
Both teams to scoreYes56.3%
No43.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)78.0%
12 (either side)84.0%
X2 (draw or away)38.0%
Handicap -1Bayer Leverkusen win6.3%
Push (exactly one goal)10.6%
Loss83.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.5%
0-29.9%
1-29.9%

Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg stats

Bayer Leverkusen and 1. FC Nürnberg recent form

newest first
Bayer Leverkusen LWWWWW
1. FC Nürnberg LDDWWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6Bayer Leverkusen wins 2Draws 21. FC Nürnberg wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2019-04-20Bayer Leverkusen1. FC NürnbergBundesliga2-0
2018-12-031. FC NürnbergBayer LeverkusenBundesliga1-1
2014-04-201. FC NürnbergBayer LeverkusenBundesliga1-4
2013-11-30Bayer Leverkusen1. FC NürnbergBundesliga3-0
2013-05-041. FC NürnbergBayer LeverkusenBundesliga0-2
2012-12-01Bayer Leverkusen1. FC NürnbergBundesliga1-0
2012-05-051. FC NürnbergBayer LeverkusenBundesliga1-4
2011-12-17Bayer Leverkusen1. FC NürnbergBundesliga0-3
2011-02-051. FC NürnbergBayer LeverkusenBundesliga1-0
2010-09-19Bayer Leverkusen1. FC NürnbergBundesliga0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 77.2%, draw 13.9%, away 8.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.20 7.10 10.50
Bet365 1.22 6.50 10.00
BetVictor 1.18 6.50 10.50
Betano 1.24 7.60 11.75
Betfair 1.13 7.00 13.00
Dafabet 1.24 7.40 10.00
Marathonbet 1.22 6.55 9.70
Pinnacle 1.23 6.98 10.87
SBO 1.21 6.38 8.68
William Hill 1.20 6.50 11.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.21 ▲ +0.07
X 6.77 ▼ -1.23
2 10.50 ▼ -2.50

16 snapshots recorded, from .