St. Pauli
vs
1. FC Nürnberg
Garuda Lions Prediction: St. Pauli
1 – 0 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — St. Pauli is the favourite, not a value bet.
St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg overview
Garuda Lions analysis: St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg
| Probability | St. Pauli | Draw | 1. FC Nürnberg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.3% | 29.4% | 39.2% |
| Market | 44.4% | 25.4% | 30.2% |
| Final | 41.1% | 26.4% | 32.5% |
| Edge | -3.3% | +1.0% | +2.3% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.18, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.4% per unit staked (our 41.1% × 2.18 − 1).
St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg match preview
St. Pauli faces 1. FC Nürnberg in a 2. Bundesliga matchup with St. Pauli holding a 41% probability of winning, while Nürnberg has a 32% chance. The model suggests a draw is also a possibility at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of St. Pauli, occurring with an 8% likelihood. Expected goals are calculated at 1.17 for St. Pauli and 1.33 for 1. FC Nürnberg.
In terms of recent form, St. Pauli has recorded draws in their last three matches, alongside two wins, while Nürnberg's recent performances include one win and two draws. The model indicates a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% likelihood that both teams will score, reflecting a competitive encounter ahead. The overall confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
St. Pauli and 1. FC Nürnberg expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.50
St. Pauli and 1. FC Nürnberg attack and defence ratings
St. Pauli
1. FC Nürnberg
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Braunschweig
- Energie Cottbus vs Bochum
- Wolfsburg v VfL Osnabrück — match page
- Darmstadt v 1. FC Magdeburg — match page
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern v Hertha BSC — match page
- Karlsruher SC vs FC Heidenheim — team news & stats
- Hannover 96 vs Dynamo Dresden — team news & stats
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel
Before and after this match
St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | St. Pauli | 41.1% | 2.43 | -3.3% | 2.18 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.0% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 68.7% | 1.46 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | St. Pauli | 41.1% |
| Draw | 26.4% | |
| 1. FC Nürnberg | 32.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.0% |
| No | 48.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | St. Pauli win | 13.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.9% | |
| Loss | 68.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.0% |
| 0-1 | 9.7% | |
| 0-0 | 9.5% |
St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg stats
St. Pauli and 1. FC Nürnberg recent form
| St. Pauli |
DDWDWD |
| 1. FC Nürnberg |
LDDWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
St. Pauli and 1. FC Nürnberg season so far
St. Pauli record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
1. FC Nürnberg record
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.4%, draw 25.4%, away 30.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.11 | 3.68 | 3.08 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.18 | 3.70 | 3.10 |
| Dafabet | 2.15 | 3.60 | 3.10 |
| Marathonbet | 2.09 | 3.68 | 3.08 |
| Pinnacle | 2.14 | 3.69 | 3.22 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.10 |