Energie Cottbus
vs
Bochum
Garuda Lions Prediction: Energie Cottbus
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.59 vs 1.04.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Energie Cottbus vs Bochum overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Energie Cottbus vs Bochum
| Probability | Energie Cottbus | Draw | Bochum |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.0% | 27.4% | 23.6% |
| Market | 36.3% | 24.7% | 38.9% |
| Final | 39.5% | 25.4% | 35.1% |
| Edge | +3.2% | +0.7% | -3.8% |
Why Energie Cottbus
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.59 vs 1.04.
- The market prices Energie Cottbus below our published probability: +3.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.55, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.8% per unit staked (our 39.5% × 2.55 − 1).
Energie Cottbus vs Bochum match preview
Energie Cottbus faces Bochum in a 2. Bundesliga matchup, with probabilities indicating a 40% chance of a home win for Cottbus, a 25% chance of a draw, and a 35% chance of an away victory for Bochum. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Energie Cottbus, with a 10% likelihood. The expected goals for Energie Cottbus stand at 1.59, while Bochum is projected at 1.04.
In terms of recent form, Energie Cottbus has recorded results of D-L-D-W-D-L, while Bochum's recent matches show D-L-L-L-D-W. The probability of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 49%, and there is a 53% chance that both teams will score during the match. The overall confidence grade for this fixture is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Energie Cottbus and Bochum expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.63
Energie Cottbus and Bochum attack and defence ratings
Energie Cottbus
Bochum
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Energie Cottbus vs Bochum markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Energie Cottbus | 39.5% | 2.53 | +3.2% | 2.55 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.7% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Energie Cottbus | 39.5% |
| Draw | 25.4% | |
| Bochum | 35.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.7% |
| No | 47.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Energie Cottbus win | 26.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.8% | |
| Loss | 51.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.1% |
| 1-0 | 10.3% | |
| 2-1 | 9.5% |
Energie Cottbus vs Bochum stats
Energie Cottbus and Bochum recent form
| Energie Cottbus |
DLDWDL |
| Bochum |
DLLLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Energie Cottbus and Bochum season so far
Energie Cottbus record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bochum record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
Energie Cottbus vs Bochum head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Energie Cottbus vs Bochum odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.3%, draw 24.7%, away 38.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.55 | 3.75 | 2.38 |