DFB Pokal
·
Full time
·Round of 32
Bochum
vs
Mainz 05
2 – 0 Full time
| 46′ | Christian Theodor Kjelder Rasmussen | ||
| 63′ | Berkan TazKoji Miyoshi | ||
| 63′ | Lee Jae-SungEric Martel | ||
| 63′ | Christian Theodor Kjelder RasmussenPhilipp Hofmann | ||
| 63′ | Silvan WidmerAnthony Caci | ||
| 63′ | Phillip TietzRansford Königsdörffer | ||
| 64′ | Ransford Königsdörffer | ||
| 66′ | Tom Meyer | ||
| 71′ | Gerrit HoltmannMansour Ouro-Tagba | ||
| 75′ | Philipp Hofmann | ||
| 81′ | Maximilian WittekLeon Sawas | ||
| 81′ | Jarne SteuckersLasse Isbruch | ||
| 84′ | Paul NebelBenedict Hollerbach | ||
| 84′ | Danny da CostaSota Kawasaki | ||
| 90′ | Lasse Isbruch | ||
| 90′ | Sean Klaiber |
Bochum
15%
Draw
20%
Mainz 05
64%
Match stats
| 8 | Shots | 9 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 48 | Possession % | 52 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 5 |
| 0 | Offsides | 1 |
| 5 | Saves | 1 |
| 345 | Accurate passes | 370 |
Bochum vs Mainz 05 overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bochum vs Mainz 05
| Probability | Bochum | Draw | Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 5.2% | 14.0% | 80.8% |
| Market | 18.7% | 22.7% | 58.6% |
| Final | 15.3% | 20.5% | 64.2% |
| Edge | -3.4% | -2.2% | +5.5% |
Why Mainz 05
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.66 vs 0.58.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Mainz 05 below our published probability: +5.5 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
95%
2+ goals
84%
3+ goals
63%
No goals
5%
Bochum and Mainz 05 expected goals
Bochum
0.58
Mainz 05
2.66
Total expected goals: 3.24
Bochum and Mainz 05 attack and defence ratings
Bochum
Attack
0.60 -40%
Defence
0.73 -27%
Mainz 05
Attack
1.35 +35%
Defence
0.99 -1%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Bochum vs Mainz 05: result vs prediction
Bochum 2 – 0 Mainz 05
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Round of 32 fixtures
- Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Frankfurt
- SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Augsburg
- Rot-Weiß Essen v RasenBallsport Leipzig — match page
- Borussia M.Gladbach vs Karlsruher SC — team news & stats
- Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen
- FC Cologne vs Union Berlin — team news & stats
- SV Elversberg vs Darmstadt
- Freiburg v Wolfsburg — match page
Before and after this match
Bochum vs Mainz 05 markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mainz 05 | 64.2% | 1.56 | +5.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.8% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.4% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 84.7% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Mainz 05 win | 60.6% | 1.65 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bochum | 15.3% |
| Draw | 20.5% | |
| Mainz 05 | 64.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.6% |
| No | 58.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 35.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 84.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mainz 05 win | 60.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.2% | |
| Loss | 19.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 13.8% |
| 0-3 | 12.3% | |
| 0-1 | 9.8% |
Bochum vs Mainz 05 stats
Bochum vs Mainz 05 head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
2Bochum wins
2Draws
6Mainz 05 wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-10 | Bochum | Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | 1-4 |
| 2025-01-11 | Mainz 05 | Bochum | Bundesliga | 2-0 |
| 2024-03-16 | Mainz 05 | Bochum | Bundesliga | 2-0 |
| 2023-10-27 | Bochum | Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | 2-2 |
| 2023-01-28 | Mainz 05 | Bochum | Bundesliga | 5-2 |
| 2022-08-06 | Bochum | Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | 1-2 |
| 2022-01-18 | Bochum | Mainz 05 | DFB Pokal | 3-1 |
| 2022-01-15 | Mainz 05 | Bochum | Bundesliga | 1-0 |
| 2021-08-21 | Bochum | Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | 2-0 |
| 2020-12-23 | Mainz 05 | Bochum | DFB Pokal | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Bochum vs Mainz 05 odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 18.7%, draw 22.7%, away 58.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.02 | 4.15 | 1.59 |
| Bet365 | 5.25 | 4.10 | 1.60 |
| BetVictor | 4.80 | 4.10 | 1.55 |
| Betano | 5.30 | 4.15 | 1.62 |
| Betfair | 4.60 | 4.00 | 1.57 |
| Dafabet | 5.00 | 4.40 | 1.62 |
| Marathonbet | 5.10 | 4.15 | 1.57 |
| Pinnacle | 5.07 | 4.22 | 1.65 |
| SBO | 4.44 | 3.74 | 1.53 |
| William Hill | 4.80 | 3.90 | 1.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
5.01 ▲ +0.26
X
4.12 ▲ +0.12
2
1.60 —
14 snapshots recorded, from .