SV Elversberg
vs
Mainz 05
Garuda Lions Prediction: Mainz 05
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.62 vs 2.27.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Mainz 05 is the favourite, not a value bet.
SV Elversberg vs Mainz 05 overview
Garuda Lions analysis: SV Elversberg vs Mainz 05
| Probability | SV Elversberg | Draw | Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29.4% | 20.5% | 50.1% |
| Market | 29.7% | 24.7% | 45.7% |
| Final | 29.6% | 23.6% | 46.8% |
| Edge | -0.1% | -1.0% | +1.1% |
Why Mainz 05
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.62 vs 2.27.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.13, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.4% per unit staked (our 46.8% × 2.13 − 1).
SV Elversberg vs Mainz 05 match preview
SV Elversberg faces Mainz 05 in a Bundesliga clash with a kickoff scheduled for October 30, 2026. According to our model, the probabilities for the match outcome are 30% for SV Elversberg to win, 24% for a draw, and 47% for Mainz 05 to secure the victory. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, with an expected goals tally of 2.27 for Elversberg and 2.62 for Mainz.
Recent form shows SV Elversberg with a record of L-W-L-D-L-W, while Mainz 05 has a record of L-W-L-W-L-W. The model suggests a high likelihood of goals, with an 84% chance of over 2.5 goals and an 82% probability that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this match is rated as A.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
SV Elversberg and Mainz 05 expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.89
SV Elversberg and Mainz 05 attack and defence ratings
SV Elversberg
Mainz 05
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim
- Borussia M.Gladbach v SC Paderborn 07 — match page
- Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart — team news & stats
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV
- Augsburg v Freiburg — match page
- FC Schalke 04 vs RasenBallsport Leipzig — team news & stats
- Union Berlin vs FC Cologne
- Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund — team news & stats
Before and after this match
SV Elversberg vs Mainz 05 markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mainz 05 | 46.8% | 2.14 | +1.1% | 2.13 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 84.4% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 81.7% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.4% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.9% | 2.00 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | SV Elversberg | 29.6% |
| Draw | 23.6% | |
| Mainz 05 | 46.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 84.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 15.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 81.7% |
| No | 18.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 53.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mainz 05 win | 32.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.5% | |
| Loss | 49.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-2 | 6.8% |
| 1-2 | 6.6% | |
| 1-1 | 6.1% |
SV Elversberg vs Mainz 05 stats
SV Elversberg and Mainz 05 recent form
| SV Elversberg |
LWLDLW |
| Mainz 05 |
LWLWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
SV Elversberg and Mainz 05 season so far
SV Elversberg record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mainz 05 record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 3.3 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
SV Elversberg vs Mainz 05 head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
SV Elversberg vs Mainz 05 odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 29.5%, draw 24.8%, away 45.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.34 | 4.16 | 2.10 |
| Bet365 | 3.20 | 3.75 | 2.05 |
| BetVictor | 3.00 | 3.75 | 2.00 |
| Betano | 3.15 | 3.85 | 2.12 |
| Dafabet | 3.20 | 3.85 | 2.13 |
| Marathonbet | 3.25 | 4.05 | 2.05 |
| Pinnacle | 3.33 | 3.87 | 2.10 |
| SBO | 2.83 | 3.39 | 2.08 |
| William Hill | 3.10 | 3.70 | 2.00 |
| pinnacle | 3.38 | 3.74 | 2.05 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
15 snapshots recorded, from .