Eintracht Frankfurt
vs
Hamburger SV
Garuda Lions Prediction: Eintracht Frankfurt
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.62 vs 1.45.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Eintracht Frankfurt is the favourite, not a value bet.
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV
| Probability | Eintracht Frankfurt | Draw | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.3% | 22.4% | 21.3% |
| Market | 55.9% | 22.5% | 21.6% |
| Final | 56.0% | 22.5% | 21.5% |
| Edge | +0.1% | -0.0% | -0.1% |
Why Eintracht Frankfurt
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.62 vs 1.45.
Best available price on the pick: 1.72, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.7% per unit staked (our 56.0% × 1.72 − 1).
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV match preview
Eintracht Frankfurt is favored in their upcoming match against Hamburger SV, with a 57% probability of winning according to our model. The expected goals for Frankfurt stand at 2.79, while Hamburger SV is projected to score 1.47. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, occurring with a 9% probability. Additionally, there is a strong likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 76% and both teams scoring at 72%.
In terms of recent form, Eintracht Frankfurt has recorded a mixed set of results with two wins, one draw, and three losses in their last six matches. Conversely, Hamburger SV has shown a slightly better performance, with three wins and three losses in the same timeframe. The head-to-head record over the last two encounters favors Hamburger SV, who has one win and one draw against Frankfurt.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Eintracht Frankfurt and Hamburger SV expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.07
Eintracht Frankfurt and Hamburger SV attack and defence ratings
Eintracht Frankfurt
Hamburger SV
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- SV Elversberg v Mainz 05 — match page
- Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim
- Borussia M.Gladbach v SC Paderborn 07 — match page
- Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart — team news & stats
- Augsburg v Freiburg — match page
- FC Schalke 04 vs RasenBallsport Leipzig — team news & stats
- Union Berlin vs FC Cologne
- Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 56.0% | 1.79 | +0.1% | 1.72 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.3% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.8% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.5% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.7% | 2.29 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 56.0% |
| Draw | 22.5% | |
| Hamburger SV | 21.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 26.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.8% |
| No | 29.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Eintracht Frankfurt win | 36.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.5% | |
| Loss | 43.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.1% |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | |
| 3-1 | 7.0% |
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV stats
Eintracht Frankfurt and Hamburger SV recent form
| Eintracht Frankfurt |
LWLDWL |
| Hamburger SV |
LWWWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Eintracht Frankfurt and Hamburger SV season so far
Eintracht Frankfurt record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
Hamburger SV record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga | 1-2 |
| 2025-12-20 | Hamburger SV | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | 1-1 |
| 2018-05-05 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga | 3-0 |
| 2017-12-12 | Hamburger SV | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | 1-2 |
| 2017-03-18 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga | 0-0 |
| 2016-10-21 | Hamburger SV | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | 0-3 |
| 2016-02-19 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga | 0-0 |
| 2015-09-19 | Hamburger SV | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | 0-0 |
| 2015-02-28 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga | 2-1 |
| 2014-09-28 | Hamburger SV | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 56.0%, draw 22.3%, away 21.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.72 | 4.61 | 4.61 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 4.20 | 4.33 |
| BetVictor | 1.62 | 4.10 | 4.20 |
| Betano | 1.72 | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| Dafabet | 1.69 | 4.30 | 4.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.68 | 4.50 | 4.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.71 | 4.39 | 4.37 |
| SBO | 1.60 | 3.97 | 4.05 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| pinnacle | 1.69 | 4.33 | 4.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
15 snapshots recorded, from .