Bayern Munich
vs
Borussia Dortmund
Garuda Lions Prediction: Bayern Munich
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.32 vs 1.39.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Bayern Munich is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund
| Probability | Bayern Munich | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.8% | 24.7% | 23.5% |
| Market | 69.9% | 16.5% | 13.6% |
| Final | 65.4% | 18.6% | 16.1% |
| Edge | -4.5% | +2.0% | +2.5% |
Why Bayern Munich
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.32 vs 1.39.
Best available price on the pick: 1.40, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.5% per unit staked (our 65.4% × 1.40 − 1).
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund match preview
Bayern Munich faces Borussia Dortmund in a Bundesliga clash with a strong probability of victory for the home side at 65%. The expected goals indicate a solid performance from Bayern, projected at 2.32, compared to Dortmund's 1.39. Recent form shows Bayern with a mixed record of W-D-W-D-D-W, while Dortmund has been slightly more consistent with W-W-D-L-D-W.
In their last six encounters, Bayern Munich has secured three wins, with two draws and only one loss to Dortmund. The most likely scoreline from our model is 2-1, occurring at a rate of 9%. Additionally, there is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% likelihood that both teams will score, suggesting an engaging match ahead.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.71
Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund attack and defence ratings
Bayern Munich
Borussia Dortmund
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- SV Elversberg v Mainz 05 — match page
- Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim
- Borussia M.Gladbach v SC Paderborn 07 — match page
- Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart — team news & stats
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV
- Augsburg v Freiburg — match page
- FC Schalke 04 vs RasenBallsport Leipzig — team news & stats
- Union Berlin vs FC Cologne
Before and after this match
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bayern Munich | 65.4% | 1.53 | -4.5% | 1.40 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.4% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.5% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.9% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.2% | 2.08 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bayern Munich | 65.4% |
| Draw | 18.6% | |
| Borussia Dortmund | 16.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.5% |
| No | 32.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 34.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bayern Munich win | 32.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.8% | |
| Loss | 48.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 2-0 | 6.7% |
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund stats
Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund recent form
| Bayern Munich |
WDWDDW |
| Borussia Dortmund |
WWDLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund season so far
Bayern Munich record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 3.7 goals per match.
- They average 6.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
Borussia Dortmund record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Borussia Dortmund | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | 2-3 |
| 2025-10-18 | Bayern Munich | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | 2-1 |
| 2025-04-12 | Bayern Munich | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | 2-2 |
| 2024-11-30 | Borussia Dortmund | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | 1-1 |
| 2024-03-30 | Bayern Munich | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | 0-2 |
| 2023-11-04 | Borussia Dortmund | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | 0-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 69.8%, draw 16.8%, away 13.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.40 | 6.17 | 7.30 |
| Bet365 | 1.33 | 5.75 | 7.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.30 | 5.50 | 6.50 |
| Betano | 1.36 | 5.80 | 7.20 |
| Dafabet | 1.35 | 6.20 | 6.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.36 | 6.00 | 7.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.40 | 5.41 | 7.31 |
| SBO | 1.32 | 5.22 | 5.80 |
| William Hill | 1.36 | 5.50 | 6.50 |
| pinnacle | 1.34 | 5.54 | 7.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
15 snapshots recorded, from .