Werder Bremen
vs
Hoffenheim
Garuda Lions Prediction: Hoffenheim
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.60.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Hoffenheim is the favourite, not a value bet.
Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim
| Probability | Werder Bremen | Draw | Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.8% | 25.9% | 47.2% |
| Market | 32.7% | 24.3% | 43.1% |
| Final | 31.2% | 24.7% | 44.1% |
| Edge | -1.5% | +0.4% | +1.0% |
Why Hoffenheim
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.60.
Best available price on the pick: 2.29, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.0% per unit staked (our 44.1% × 2.29 − 1).
Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim match preview
In the upcoming Bundesliga match, Werder Bremen faces Hoffenheim, with probabilities indicating a 32% chance for Bremen to win, a 25% chance for a draw, and a 43% chance for Hoffenheim to secure victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-2 in favor of Hoffenheim, with an expectation of 1.70 goals for Bremen and 1.83 for Hoffenheim.
Recent form shows Werder Bremen with a sequence of W-D-D-W-D-W, while Hoffenheim has struggled, recording W-W-L-L-L-L in their last six matches. The model suggests a high likelihood of goals, with a 65% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 68% probability that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this match is rated as A.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Werder Bremen and Hoffenheim expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.52
Werder Bremen and Hoffenheim attack and defence ratings
Werder Bremen
Hoffenheim
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- SV Elversberg v Mainz 05 — match page
- Borussia M.Gladbach v SC Paderborn 07 — match page
- Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart — team news & stats
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV
- Augsburg v Freiburg — match page
- FC Schalke 04 vs RasenBallsport Leipzig — team news & stats
- Union Berlin vs FC Cologne
- Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hoffenheim | 44.1% | 2.27 | +1.0% | 2.29 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.3% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.0% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.3% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.8% | 1.89 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Werder Bremen | 31.2% |
| Draw | 24.7% | |
| Hoffenheim | 44.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.0% |
| No | 33.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 55.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Hoffenheim win | 27.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.4% | |
| Loss | 52.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.5% |
| 1-2 | 9.2% | |
| 2-1 | 6.9% |
Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim stats
Werder Bremen and Hoffenheim recent form
| Werder Bremen |
WDDWDW |
| Hoffenheim |
WWWLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Werder Bremen and Hoffenheim season so far
Werder Bremen record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
Hoffenheim record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Hoffenheim | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | 1-0 |
| 2026-01-27 | Werder Bremen | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | 0-2 |
| 2025-02-16 | Werder Bremen | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | 1-3 |
| 2024-09-29 | Hoffenheim | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | 3-4 |
| 2024-03-03 | Hoffenheim | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | 2-1 |
| 2023-10-07 | Werder Bremen | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.7%, draw 24.3%, away 43.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.04 | 4.21 | 2.23 |
| Bet365 | 2.90 | 3.80 | 2.20 |
| BetVictor | 2.80 | 3.75 | 2.10 |
| Betano | 2.92 | 3.90 | 2.22 |
| Dafabet | 2.90 | 3.90 | 2.21 |
| Marathonbet | 2.96 | 4.10 | 2.17 |
| Pinnacle | 2.90 | 3.99 | 2.29 |
| SBO | 2.74 | 3.58 | 2.06 |
| William Hill | 2.88 | 3.80 | 2.10 |
| pinnacle | 2.92 | 3.91 | 2.21 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
15 snapshots recorded, from .