Bayer Leverkusen
vs
VfB Stuttgart
Garuda Lions Prediction: Bayer Leverkusen
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.67 vs 1.46.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Bayer Leverkusen is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart
| Probability | Bayer Leverkusen | Draw | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.9% | 22.0% | 21.1% |
| Market | 52.5% | 22.1% | 25.4% |
| Final | 53.6% | 22.1% | 24.3% |
| Edge | +1.1% | -0.0% | -1.1% |
Why Bayer Leverkusen
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.67 vs 1.46.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.82, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.4% per unit staked (our 53.6% × 1.82 − 1).
Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart match preview
Bayer Leverkusen enters this match against VfB Stuttgart with a strong recent form, having won their last six matches. The model predicts a high-scoring encounter, with Bayer Leverkusen expected to score 2.85 goals compared to VfB Stuttgart's 1.26. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, occurring with a 9% probability. Additionally, there is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% likelihood that both teams will score.
In their last six head-to-head encounters, Bayer Leverkusen has secured one win, while VfB Stuttgart has achieved two victories, with three matches ending in a draw. The probabilities indicate a 56% chance of a Bayer Leverkusen win, a 21% chance of a draw, and a 23% chance of a VfB Stuttgart win, reflecting a favorable outlook for the home side.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.14
Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart attack and defence ratings
Bayer Leverkusen
VfB Stuttgart
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- SV Elversberg v Mainz 05 — match page
- Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim
- Borussia M.Gladbach v SC Paderborn 07 — match page
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV
- Augsburg v Freiburg — match page
- FC Schalke 04 vs RasenBallsport Leipzig — team news & stats
- Union Berlin vs FC Cologne
- Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 53.6% | 1.86 | +1.1% | 1.82 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.2% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.4% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.9% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.1% | 2.32 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 53.6% |
| Draw | 22.1% | |
| VfB Stuttgart | 24.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 25.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.4% |
| No | 28.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bayer Leverkusen win | 37.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.4% | |
| Loss | 43.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.8% |
| 1-1 | 8.8% | |
| 3-1 | 7.1% |
Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart stats
Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart recent form
| Bayer Leverkusen |
LWWWWW |
| VfB Stuttgart |
LDLWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart season so far
Bayer Leverkusen record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
VfB Stuttgart record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | VfB Stuttgart | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga | 3-1 |
| 2026-01-10 | Bayer Leverkusen | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | 1-4 |
| 2025-03-16 | VfB Stuttgart | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga | 3-4 |
| 2024-11-01 | Bayer Leverkusen | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | 0-0 |
| 2024-04-27 | Bayer Leverkusen | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | 2-2 |
| 2023-12-10 | VfB Stuttgart | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 52.7%, draw 22.1%, away 25.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.81 | 4.62 | 4.07 |
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| BetVictor | 1.70 | 4.20 | 3.70 |
| Betano | 1.82 | 4.30 | 3.70 |
| Dafabet | 1.82 | 4.30 | 3.75 |
| Marathonbet | 1.76 | 4.50 | 3.96 |
| Pinnacle | 1.81 | 4.45 | 3.86 |
| SBO | 1.82 | 3.74 | 3.23 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| pinnacle | 1.79 | 4.35 | 3.79 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
15 snapshots recorded, from .