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UEFA Champions League · Full time ·League Stage - 4

Galatasaray vs VfB Stuttgart

2 – 0 Full time

2′Atakan Karazor
12′Aleksey Batrakov
15′Aleksey Batrakov
18′Atakan KarazorYanik Spalt
38′Deniz Undav
39′Baris Alper Yilmaz
45′Yanik Spalt
61′Grischa Prömel
62′Roland Sallai
68′Baris Alper YilmazRafael Leão
68′Roland SallaiWilfried Singo
74′Ermedin DemirovićDženan Pejčinović
74′Grischa PrömelNikolas Nartey
75′Jamie LewelingLorenz Assignon
77′Aleksey BatrakovLeroy Sané
77′Ismail JakobsEren Elmalı
79′Ramon Hendriks
82′Chris FührichTiago Tomás
83′Mario LeminaGabriel
85′Lucas Torreira

Rams Park, IstanbulReferee: Chris Kavanagh

Galatasaray 50%
Draw 22%
VfB Stuttgart 28%

Confidence: Medium  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

13 Shots 13
4 Shots on target 5
52 Possession % 48
6 Corners 4
13 Fouls 16
2 Offsides 3
5 Saves 2
286 Accurate passes 266

Galatasaray vs VfB Stuttgart overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Galatasaray vs VfB Stuttgart

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityGalatasarayDrawVfB Stuttgart
Model60.4%19.1%20.5%
Market46.7%22.5%30.7%
Final50.1%21.7%28.2%
Edge+3.4%-0.9%-2.5%

Confidence: Medium · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Galatasaray

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.62 vs 1.53.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Galatasaray below our published probability: +3.4 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Galatasaray ↓ / VfB Stuttgart → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 5% 2 5% 8% 6% 3 5% 7% 6% 4+ 6% 9% 7%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 93%
3+ goals 78%
No goals 2%

Galatasaray and VfB Stuttgart expected goals

Galatasaray 2.62
VfB Stuttgart 1.53

Total expected goals: 4.16

Galatasaray and VfB Stuttgart attack and defence ratings

Galatasaray

Attack 1.30 +30%
Defence 0.94 -6%

VfB Stuttgart

Attack 1.24 +24%
Defence 1.04 +4%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Galatasaray vs VfB Stuttgart: result vs prediction

Galatasaray 2 – 0 VfB Stuttgart

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other League Stage - 4 fixtures

UEFA Champions League

Before and after this match

Galatasaray vs VfB Stuttgart markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Galatasaray 50.1% 1.99 +3.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 78.4% 1.28 — —
Both teams to score Yes 73.4% 1.36 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 78.3% 1.28 — —
Handicap -1 Galatasaray win 40.8% 2.45 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Galatasaray50.1%
Draw21.7%
VfB Stuttgart28.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.578.4%
Under 2.521.6%
Both teams to scoreYes73.4%
No26.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)71.8%
12 (either side)78.3%
X2 (draw or away)49.9%
Handicap -1Galatasaray win40.8%
Push (exactly one goal)19.6%
Loss39.6%
Correct score (top 3)2-18.3%
3-17.2%
1-16.9%

Galatasaray vs VfB Stuttgart stats

Galatasaray and VfB Stuttgart recent form

newest first
Galatasaray WWWWLW
VfB Stuttgart WWLDLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Galatasaray vs VfB Stuttgart head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Galatasaray vs VfB Stuttgart odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 46.5%, draw 22.7%, away 30.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.13 4.32 3.18
Bet365 2.00 4.33 3.10
BetVictor 2.00 4.20 3.10
Betano 2.05 4.30 3.30
Betfair 2.00 4.20 3.20
Dafabet 2.24 4.00 2.90
Marathonbet 2.10 4.25 3.12
Pinnacle 2.07 4.25 3.25
SBO 2.08 3.71 2.80
William Hill 2.00 3.90 3.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.05 ▼ -0.18
X 4.25 ▲ +0.35
2 3.12 ▲ +0.29

14 snapshots recorded, from .