Barcelona
vs
Aston Villa
3 – 0 Full time
| 7′ | Lamine Yamal | ||
| 11′ | Ian Maatsen | ||
| 31′ | Emiliano Buendía | ||
| 45′ | Nicolas Jackson | ||
| 45′ | Raphael Dias Belloli | ||
| 45′ | Rodrigo Hernandez CascanteMarc Bernal | ||
| 52′ | Raphael Dias Belloli | ||
| 62′ | Emiliano BuendíaIbrahim Mbaye | ||
| 62′ | Johan ManzambiLeon Goretzka | ||
| 62′ | João GomesRoss Barkley | ||
| 64′ | Raphael Dias Belloli | ||
| 70′ | PedriFrenkie de Jong | ||
| 70′ | Fermín LópezPablo Martín Páez Gavira | ||
| 70′ | Raphael Dias BelloliGabriel Jesus | ||
| 77′ | Nicolas JacksonTammy Abraham | ||
| 77′ | John McGinn Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha | ||
| 82′ | Brian FarinasAlejandro Balde |
Match stats
| 16 | Shots | 9 |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 65 | Possession % | 35 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Offsides | 3 |
| 1 | Saves | 5 |
| 553 | Accurate passes | 258 |
Barcelona vs Aston Villa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Barcelona vs Aston Villa
| Probability | Barcelona | Draw | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 80.3% | 10.9% | 8.8% |
| Market | 75.0% | 13.7% | 11.3% |
| Final | 76.3% | 13.0% | 10.7% |
| Edge | +1.3% | -0.7% | -0.6% |
Why Barcelona
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.89 vs 1.43.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Barcelona and Aston Villa expected goals
Total expected goals: 5.32
Barcelona and Aston Villa attack and defence ratings
Barcelona
Aston Villa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Barcelona vs Aston Villa: result vs prediction
Barcelona 3 – 0 Aston Villa
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other League Stage - 4 fixtures
- Shakhtar Donetsk v Sporting CP — match page
- Galatasaray vs VfB Stuttgart — team news & stats
- Manchester United vs Roma
- Feyenoord v Inter — match page
- Bodo/Glimt vs Lille — team news & stats
- Atletico Madrid v Bayern Munich — match page
- Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain — team news & stats
- Lask Linz vs Slovan Bratislava
Before and after this match
Barcelona vs Aston Villa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barcelona | 76.3% | 1.31 | +1.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 89.9% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.3% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Barcelona win | 65.4% | 1.53 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barcelona | 76.3% |
| Draw | 13.0% | |
| Aston Villa | 10.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 89.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 10.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.6% |
| No | 25.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 87.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 23.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Barcelona win | 65.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14.9% | |
| Loss | 19.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-1 | 6.9% |
| 4-1 | 6.7% | |
| 2-1 | 5.3% |
Barcelona vs Aston Villa stats
Barcelona and Aston Villa recent form
| Barcelona |
WLLWWW |
| Aston Villa |
DLWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Barcelona vs Aston Villa head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Barcelona vs Aston Villa odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 75.0%, draw 13.7%, away 11.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.32 | 7.01 | 8.60 |
| Bet365 | 1.27 | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.25 | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| Betano | 1.31 | 7.00 | 8.50 |
| Betfair | 1.25 | 7.00 | 9.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.28 | 7.00 | 8.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.30 | 6.90 | 8.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.28 | 7.06 | 8.70 |
| SBO | 1.27 | 5.99 | 6.76 |
| William Hill | 1.29 | 6.00 | 7.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .