Atletico Madrid
vs
Barcelona
Garuda Lions Prediction: Barcelona
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.29 vs 1.67.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Barcelona is the favourite, not a value bet.
Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona
| Probability | Atletico Madrid | Draw | Barcelona |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.1% | 22.1% | 39.8% |
| Market | 26.0% | 22.6% | 51.4% |
| Final | 29.0% | 22.5% | 48.5% |
| Edge | +3.0% | -0.1% | -2.9% |
Why Barcelona
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.29 vs 1.67.
Best available price on the pick: 1.90, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.9% per unit staked (our 48.5% × 1.90 − 1).
Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona match preview
Atletico Madrid faces Barcelona in a La Liga clash with the probabilities favoring Barcelona at 48%, while Atletico Madrid stands at 29% and a draw at 22%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-2, with an expected goals tally of 2.06 for Atletico Madrid and 2.22 for Barcelona. Both teams are expected to score, with an 80% probability, and there is an 81% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match.
In terms of recent form, Atletico Madrid has won their last five matches, while Barcelona has a mixed record with four wins and two losses in their last six games. Historically, in their last 10 encounters, Barcelona has secured 6 wins compared to Atletico Madrid's 3 victories and 1 draw, indicating a competitive rivalry.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atletico Madrid and Barcelona expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.96
Atletico Madrid and Barcelona attack and defence ratings
Atletico Madrid
Barcelona
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barcelona | 48.5% | 2.06 | -2.9% | 1.90 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81.1% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 80.0% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.5% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Madrid | 29.0% |
| Draw | 22.5% | |
| Barcelona | 48.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 18.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 80.0% |
| No | 20.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 51.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Barcelona win | 30.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.3% | |
| Loss | 51.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 7.2% |
| 2-2 | 7.2% | |
| 1-2 | 6.7% |
Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona stats
Atletico Madrid and Barcelona recent form
| Atletico Madrid |
LWWDWW |
| Barcelona |
WWLLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atletico Madrid and Barcelona season so far
Atletico Madrid record
- They have won 8 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Barcelona record
- They have won 9 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 4.0 goals per match.
- They average 4.4 goals per game on the road against 3.6 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 9 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-14 | Atletico Madrid | Barcelona | UEFA Champions League | 1-2 |
| 2026-04-08 | Barcelona | Atletico Madrid | UEFA Champions League | 0-2 |
| 2026-04-04 | Atletico Madrid | Barcelona | La Liga | 1-2 |
| 2026-03-03 | Barcelona | Atletico Madrid | Copa del Rey | 3-0 |
| 2026-02-12 | Atletico Madrid | Barcelona | Copa del Rey | 4-0 |
| 2025-12-02 | Barcelona | Atletico Madrid | La Liga | 3-1 |
| 2025-04-02 | Atletico Madrid | Barcelona | Copa del Rey | 0-1 |
| 2025-03-16 | Atletico Madrid | Barcelona | La Liga | 2-4 |
| 2025-02-25 | Barcelona | Atletico Madrid | Copa del Rey | 4-4 |
| 2024-12-21 | Barcelona | Atletico Madrid | La Liga | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 25.5%, draw 22.2%, away 52.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.82 | 4.41 | 1.90 |
| Bet365 | 3.75 | 4.33 | 1.80 |
| BetVictor | 3.50 | 4.20 | 1.75 |
| Betano | 3.65 | 4.30 | 1.83 |
| Betfair | 3.80 | 4.50 | 1.80 |
| Dafabet | 3.75 | 4.30 | 1.85 |
| Marathonbet | 3.72 | 4.30 | 1.85 |
| Pinnacle | 3.79 | 4.45 | 1.84 |
| SBO | 3.23 | 3.79 | 1.81 |
| William Hill | 3.50 | 4.00 | 1.83 |
| onexbet | 3.85 | 4.36 | 1.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
24 snapshots recorded, from .