Osasuna
vs
Athletic Club
Garuda Lions Prediction: Athletic Club
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Athletic Club is the favourite, not a value bet.
Osasuna vs Athletic Club overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Osasuna vs Athletic Club
| Probability | Osasuna | Draw | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.0% | 25.0% | 29.0% |
| Market | 28.5% | 28.2% | 43.3% |
| Final | 32.9% | 27.4% | 39.7% |
| Edge | +4.4% | -0.8% | -3.6% |
Why Athletic Club
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.18, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.4% per unit staked (our 39.7% × 2.18 − 1).
Osasuna vs Athletic Club match preview
Osasuna faces Athletic Club in a La Liga matchup with kickoff set for November 7, 2026. According to our model, Osasuna has a 33% chance of winning, while Athletic Club holds a 40% probability. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, with an expected goals tally of 1.91 for Osasuna and 1.59 for Athletic Club. Additionally, there is a 70% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 71% chance that both teams will score.
In terms of recent form, Osasuna has recorded one win, one draw, and four losses in their last six matches, while Athletic Club has performed better with three wins and three draws in the same period. The head-to-head record shows Osasuna with one win, three draws, and three losses against Athletic Club in their last seven encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Osasuna and Athletic Club expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.46
Osasuna and Athletic Club attack and defence ratings
Osasuna
Athletic Club
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Osasuna vs Athletic Club markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Athletic Club | 39.7% | 2.52 | -3.6% | 2.18 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.6% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.6% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.6% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 68.8% | 1.45 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Osasuna | 32.9% |
| Draw | 27.4% | |
| Athletic Club | 39.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.6% |
| No | 29.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Athletic Club win | 16.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.1% | |
| Loss | 68.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.5% |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | |
| 2-2 | 7.0% |
Osasuna vs Athletic Club stats
Osasuna and Athletic Club recent form
| Osasuna |
LWLWLD |
| Athletic Club |
WWWLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Osasuna and Athletic Club season so far
Osasuna record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Athletic Club record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Osasuna vs Athletic Club head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | Athletic Club | Osasuna | La Liga | 1-0 |
| 2026-01-03 | Osasuna | Athletic Club | La Liga | 1-1 |
| 2025-03-30 | Athletic Club | Osasuna | La Liga | 0-0 |
| 2025-01-16 | Athletic Club | Osasuna | Copa del Rey | 2-3 |
| 2024-12-21 | Osasuna | Athletic Club | La Liga | 1-2 |
| 2024-08-03 | Athletic Club | Osasuna | Friendlies Clubs | 2-1 |
| 2024-05-11 | Athletic Club | Osasuna | La Liga | 2-2 |
| 2023-08-19 | Osasuna | Athletic Club | La Liga | 0-2 |
| 2023-05-25 | Osasuna | Athletic Club | La Liga | 2-0 |
| 2023-04-04 | Athletic Club | Osasuna | Copa del Rey | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Osasuna vs Athletic Club odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 26.3%, draw 27.9%, away 45.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.66 | 3.54 | 2.18 |
| Bet365 | 3.60 | 3.50 | 2.05 |
| BetVictor | 3.70 | 3.40 | 2.05 |
| Betano | 3.60 | 3.35 | 2.10 |
| Betfair | 3.75 | 3.40 | 2.05 |
| Dafabet | 3.65 | 3.45 | 2.11 |
| Marathonbet | 3.56 | 3.44 | 2.12 |
| Pinnacle | 3.71 | 3.59 | 2.07 |
| SBO | 3.25 | 3.04 | 2.03 |
| William Hill | 3.30 | 3.30 | 2.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
24 snapshots recorded, from .