Garuda Lions
Today
La Liga · ·Matchday 11

Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna

Garuda Lions Prediction: Deportivo La Coruna

2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.00 vs 1.20.
  • RiskThe other two outcomes still add up to 53%.
Bet on Deportivo La Coruna

Estadio Municipal de Riazor

Deportivo La Coruna 47%
Draw 28%
Osasuna 26%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Deportivo La Coruna wins
47%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
94%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
63%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
2 – 1
10% of simulated outcomes

Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityDeportivo La CorunaDrawOsasuna
Model56.1%24.5%19.4%
Market43.5%28.9%27.6%
Final46.7%27.8%25.5%
Edge+3.2%-1.1%-2.1%

Confidence: High · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Deportivo La Coruna

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.00 vs 1.20.
  • The market prices Deportivo La Coruna below our published probability: +3.2 percentage points of edge.

Best available price on the pick: 2.28, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +6.5% per unit staked (our 46.7% × 2.28 − 1).

Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna match preview

Deportivo La Coruna faces Osasuna in a La Liga matchup with a projected victory probability of 45% for the home side, while Osasuna stands at 27%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, occurring with a frequency of 10%. The model also indicates a strong likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams scoring at 63%.

In terms of expected goals, Deportivo La Coruna is forecasted to net 2.00, compared to Osasuna's 1.20. Recent form shows Deportivo La Coruna struggling with a sequence of losses and draws, while Osasuna has also had a tough run, with one win in their last six matches. The confidence grade for this prediction is rated as A.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Deportivo La C ↓ / Osasuna → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 11% 6% 2 8% 10% 6% 3 6% 7% 4+ 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 86%
3+ goals 64%
No goals 6%

Deportivo La Coruna and Osasuna expected goals

Deportivo La Coruna 2.00
Osasuna 1.20

Total expected goals: 3.20

Deportivo La Coruna and Osasuna attack and defence ratings

Deportivo La Coruna

Attack 1.10 +10%
Defence 0.97 -3%

Osasuna

Attack 1.07 +7%
Defence 1.14 +14%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

La Liga

Before and after this match

Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Deportivo La Coruna 46.7% 2.14 +3.2% 2.28
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 64.1% 1.56 — —
Both teams to score Yes 63.2% 1.58 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 74.5% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 43.9% 2.28 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Deportivo La Coruna46.7%
Draw27.8%
Osasuna25.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.564.1%
Under 2.535.9%
Both teams to scoreYes63.2%
No36.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)74.5%
12 (either side)72.2%
X2 (draw or away)53.3%
Handicap -1Deportivo La Coruna win35.4%
Push (exactly one goal)20.7%
Loss43.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.1%
2-19.8%
2-08.1%
Compare prices for this pick

Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna stats

Deportivo La Coruna and Osasuna recent form

newest first
Deportivo La Coruna LDLDLD
Osasuna WLDLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Deportivo La Coruna and Osasuna season so far

league record

Deportivo La Coruna record

  • They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Osasuna record

  • They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 43.6%, draw 28.8%, away 27.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.28 3.42 3.51
Bet365 2.15 3.20 3.30
BetVictor 2.10 3.20 3.30
Betano 2.22 3.30 3.40
Betfair 2.10 3.25 3.40
Dafabet 2.20 3.25 3.45
Marathonbet 2.22 3.34 3.42
Pinnacle 2.16 3.29 3.67
SBO 2.14 2.94 3.11
William Hill 2.15 3.10 3.40
betclic_fr 2.13 3.00 2.95
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.16 ▲ +0.06
X 3.25 ▲ +0.15
2 3.40 ▲ +0.27

14 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 Deportivo La Coruna Predicted score 2 – 1 High Bet Now
v Bet Now