Racing Santander
vs
Real Madrid
Garuda Lions Prediction: Real Madrid
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.62 vs 1.84.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Real Madrid is the favourite, not a value bet.
Racing Santander vs Real Madrid overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Racing Santander vs Real Madrid
| Probability | Racing Santander | Draw | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.4% | 20.6% | 52.1% |
| Market | 10.4% | 14.4% | 75.1% |
| Final | 14.7% | 16.0% | 69.4% |
| Edge | +4.2% | +1.5% | -5.8% |
Why Real Madrid
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.62 vs 1.84.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.30, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.8% per unit staked (our 69.4% × 1.30 − 1).
Racing Santander vs Real Madrid match preview
Racing Santander hosts Real Madrid in this La Liga fixture, with the home side showing a mixed recent form of W-L-D-L-L-W. Their expected goals stand at 1.79, indicating a moderate attacking capability. In contrast, Real Madrid has been in strong form, winning four of their last six matches, and boasts an expected goals figure of 2.67 for this encounter.
Our model gives Racing Santander a 14% chance of winning, while Real Madrid is favored at 70%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-2, occurring with a probability of 7%. Additionally, there is a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 83% and both teams scoring at 80%, suggesting an engaging match ahead.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Racing Santander and Real Madrid expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.46
Racing Santander and Real Madrid attack and defence ratings
Racing Santander
Real Madrid
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Racing Santander vs Real Madrid markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Madrid | 69.4% | 1.44 | -5.8% | 1.30 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83.2% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 80.4% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 85.3% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.9% | 2.09 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Racing Santander | 14.7% |
| Draw | 16.0% | |
| Real Madrid | 69.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 16.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 80.4% |
| No | 19.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 30.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 84.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 85.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Madrid win | 34.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.8% | |
| Loss | 47.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 7.0% |
| 2-2 | 6.8% | |
| 1-1 | 6.4% |
Racing Santander vs Real Madrid stats
Racing Santander and Real Madrid recent form
| Racing Santander |
WLDLLW |
| Real Madrid |
WWWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Racing Santander and Real Madrid season so far
Racing Santander record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Real Madrid record
- They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 3.4 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Racing Santander vs Real Madrid head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Racing Santander vs Real Madrid odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 10.4%, draw 14.4%, away 75.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 9.90 | 6.96 | 1.30 |
| Bet365 | 9.00 | 6.25 | 1.25 |
| BetVictor | 9.00 | 6.00 | 1.22 |
| Betano | 8.25 | 6.50 | 1.29 |
| Betfair | 9.50 | 6.50 | 1.22 |
| Dafabet | 8.40 | 6.80 | 1.27 |
| Marathonbet | 9.50 | 6.65 | 1.27 |
| Pinnacle | 9.02 | 7.29 | 1.25 |
| SBO | 6.95 | 5.70 | 1.24 |
| William Hill | 8.50 | 6.50 | 1.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
15 snapshots recorded, from .