Atletico Madrid
vs
Bayern Munich
0 – 2 Full time
| 54′ | Lennart Karl | ||
| 56′ | Joshua Kimmich | ||
| 59′ | Alejandro Baena RodríguezLee Kang-In | ||
| 59′ | Robin Le NormandKoke | ||
| 59′ | Alexander SørlothAdemola Lookman | ||
| 68′ | Lennart KarlNathaniel Brown | ||
| 74′ | Konrad Laimer | ||
| 75′ | Pablo Barrios RivasRodrigo Mendoza | ||
| 75′ | Julián ÁlvarezJonathan David | ||
| 79′ | Alphonso DaviesKim Min-Jae | ||
| 79′ | Giuliano Simeone Baldini | ||
| 89′ | Konrad LaimerSacha Boey | ||
| 90′ | Josip Stanišić |
Match stats
| 9 | Shots | 19 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 42 | Possession % | 58 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 3 |
| 0 | Offsides | 4 |
| 3 | Saves | 3 |
| 362 | Accurate passes | 568 |
Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich
| Probability | Atletico Madrid | Draw | Bayern Munich |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.4% | 22.5% | 50.1% |
| Market | 34.3% | 24.6% | 41.1% |
| Final | 32.6% | 24.1% | 43.3% |
| Edge | -1.7% | -0.5% | +2.3% |
Why Bayern Munich
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 1.56.
- The market prices Bayern Munich below our published probability: +2.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atletico Madrid and Bayern Munich expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.69
Atletico Madrid and Bayern Munich attack and defence ratings
Atletico Madrid
Bayern Munich
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich: result vs prediction
Atletico Madrid 0 – 2 Bayern Munich
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other League Stage - 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bayern Munich | 43.3% | 2.31 | +2.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.2% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.3% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.9% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.9% | 2.00 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Madrid | 32.6% |
| Draw | 24.1% | |
| Bayern Munich | 43.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 28.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.3% |
| No | 29.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bayern Munich win | 30.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.8% | |
| Loss | 49.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.2% |
| 1-2 | 8.9% | |
| 2-2 | 6.9% |
Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich stats
Atletico Madrid and Bayern Munich recent form
| Atletico Madrid |
WWDWWW |
| Bayern Munich |
DWWDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-12-01 | Atletico Madrid | Bayern Munich | UEFA Champions League | 1-1 |
| 2020-10-21 | Bayern Munich | Atletico Madrid | UEFA Champions League | 4-0 |
| 2016-12-06 | Bayern Munich | Atletico Madrid | UEFA Champions League | 1-0 |
| 2016-09-28 | Atletico Madrid | Bayern Munich | UEFA Champions League | 1-0 |
| 2016-05-03 | Bayern Munich | Atletico Madrid | UEFA Champions League | 2-1 |
| 2016-04-27 | Atletico Madrid | Bayern Munich | UEFA Champions League | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.6%, draw 24.6%, away 40.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.86 | 3.96 | 2.42 |
| Bet365 | 2.75 | 3.90 | 2.30 |
| BetVictor | 2.75 | 3.90 | 2.30 |
| Betano | 2.82 | 3.95 | 2.40 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 3.90 | 2.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.60 | 3.90 | 2.50 |
| Marathonbet | 2.82 | 3.90 | 2.38 |
| Pinnacle | 2.87 | 3.79 | 2.42 |
| SBO | 2.51 | 3.52 | 2.34 |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 3.60 | 2.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .