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Bundesliga · ·Matchday 9

Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich

Garuda Lions Prediction: Bayern Munich

1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.68 vs 1.87.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Bayern Munich is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bet on Bayern Munich

MEWA Arena, MainzReferee: Robert Schroder

Mainz 05 18%
Draw 17%
Bayern Munich 64%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Bayern Munich wins
64%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
98%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
78%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
1 – 2
7% of simulated outcomes

Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMainz 05DrawBayern Munich
Model18.4%18.1%63.5%
Market18.1%17.3%64.7%
Final18.2%17.5%64.4%
Edge+0.1%+0.2%-0.3%

Confidence: High · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Bayern Munich

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.68 vs 1.87.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Best available price on the pick: 1.47, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.4% per unit staked (our 64.4% × 1.47 − 1).

Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich match preview

Mainz 05 faces Bayern Munich in this Bundesliga clash, with the probabilities indicating a strong advantage for the visitors. Bayern Munich holds a 64% likelihood of winning, while Mainz 05 is at 18%, and a draw is at 17%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, with an expected goals tally of 1.85 for Mainz and 2.98 for Bayern.

Recent form shows Mainz struggling with three consecutive losses, while Bayern has a more stable performance, with two wins and three draws in their last six matches. The model suggests a high chance of goals, with an 84% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 78% chance for both teams to score. In their last six encounters, Bayern Munich has dominated with four wins compared to Mainz's one victory.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Mainz 05 ↓ / Bayern Munich → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 5% 5% 1 7% 8% 7% 9% 2 5% 6% 6% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 94%
3+ goals 81%
No goals 2%

Mainz 05 and Bayern Munich expected goals

Mainz 05 1.87
Bayern Munich 2.68

Total expected goals: 4.55

Mainz 05 and Bayern Munich attack and defence ratings

Mainz 05

Attack 1.35 +35%
Defence 1.04 +4%

Bayern Munich

Attack 1.79 +79%
Defence 0.75 -25%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Bundesliga

Before and after this match

Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Bayern Munich 64.4% 1.55 -0.3% 1.47
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 84.2% 1.19 — —
Both teams to score Yes 77.8% 1.28 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 82.5% 1.21 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 42.2% 2.37 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Mainz 0518.2%
Draw17.5%
Bayern Munich64.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.584.2%
Under 2.515.8%
Both teams to scoreYes77.8%
No22.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)35.6%
12 (either side)82.5%
X2 (draw or away)81.8%
Handicap -1Bayern Munich win39.3%
Push (exactly one goal)18.5%
Loss42.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-27.1%
1-37.1%
2-25.9%
Compare prices for this pick

Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich stats

Mainz 05 and Bayern Munich recent form

newest first
Mainz 05 LLLWLW
Bayern Munich WDWWDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Mainz 05 and Bayern Munich season so far

league record

Mainz 05 record

  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Bayern Munich record

  • They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 3.4 goals per match.
  • They average 5.0 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.

Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Mainz 05 wins 1Draws 7Bayern Munich wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-25Mainz 05Bayern MunichBundesliga3-4
2025-12-14Bayern MunichMainz 05Bundesliga2-2
2025-04-26Bayern MunichMainz 05Bundesliga3-0
2024-12-14Mainz 05Bayern MunichBundesliga2-1
2024-10-30Mainz 05Bayern MunichDFB Pokal0-4
2024-03-09Bayern MunichMainz 05Bundesliga8-1
2023-10-21Mainz 05Bayern MunichBundesliga1-3
2023-04-22Mainz 05Bayern MunichBundesliga3-1
2023-02-01Mainz 05Bayern MunichDFB Pokal0-4
2022-10-29Bayern MunichMainz 05Bundesliga6-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 13.3%, draw 15.2%, away 71.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 8.20 6.50 1.35
Bet365 7.00 6.25 1.33
BetVictor 7.50 5.75 1.25
Betano 6.90 6.00 1.35
Betfair 7.50 6.50 1.30
Dafabet 7.40 6.40 1.33
Marathonbet 8.10 6.40 1.33
Pinnacle 7.17 6.88 1.33
SBO 5.80 5.22 1.32
William Hill 6.50 6.00 1.30
pinnacle 4.69 6.11 1.47
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 7.29 ▲ +1.24
X 6.33 ▲ +0.50
2 1.33 ▼ -0.06

24 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 2 Bayern Munich Predicted score 1 – 2 High Bet Now
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