Hoffenheim
vs
FC Schalke 04
Garuda Lions Prediction: Hoffenheim
2 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.10 vs 1.06.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Hoffenheim is the favourite, not a value bet.
Hoffenheim vs FC Schalke 04 overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Hoffenheim vs FC Schalke 04
| Probability | Hoffenheim | Draw | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64.4% | 22.8% | 12.8% |
| Market | 58.2% | 21.8% | 20.1% |
| Final | 59.7% | 22.0% | 18.2% |
| Edge | +1.5% | +0.3% | -1.8% |
Why Hoffenheim
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.10 vs 1.06.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.4% per unit staked (our 59.7% × 1.65 − 1).
Hoffenheim vs FC Schalke 04 match preview
Hoffenheim enters the match against FC Schalke 04 with a strong probability of winning at 60%, while Schalke has an 18% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-0, with an 11% probability. Hoffenheim's expected goals stand at 2.43, significantly higher than Schalke's 0.92, indicating a potential dominance in the attacking phase.
Recent form shows Hoffenheim with a mixed record of L-D-W-W-W-L, while Schalke has struggled, recording L-L-D-L-L-D. The model suggests a 60% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance that both teams will score. With a confidence grade of A, Hoffenheim appears well-positioned for this Bundesliga clash.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Hoffenheim and FC Schalke 04 expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.16
Hoffenheim and FC Schalke 04 attack and defence ratings
Hoffenheim
FC Schalke 04
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Hamburger SV vs Borussia M.Gladbach — team news & stats
- Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich
- Borussia Dortmund v SV Elversberg — match page
- RasenBallsport Leipzig v Augsburg — match page
- SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt
- VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen
- FC Cologne v Bayer Leverkusen — match page
- Freiburg vs Union Berlin — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Hoffenheim vs FC Schalke 04 markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hoffenheim | 59.7% | 1.67 | +1.5% | 1.65 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.9% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.1% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.8% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.4% | 2.20 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hoffenheim | 59.7% |
| Draw | 22.0% | |
| FC Schalke 04 | 18.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.1% |
| No | 44.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Hoffenheim win | 33.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.6% | |
| Loss | 45.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.8% |
| 2-0 | 10.7% | |
| 2-1 | 9.8% |
Hoffenheim vs FC Schalke 04 stats
Hoffenheim and FC Schalke 04 recent form
| Hoffenheim |
DLDWWW |
| FC Schalke 04 |
LLDLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Hoffenheim and FC Schalke 04 season so far
Hoffenheim record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Schalke 04 record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.0 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 7 matches.
Hoffenheim vs FC Schalke 04 head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Hoffenheim vs FC Schalke 04 odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 59.0%, draw 21.4%, away 19.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.65 | 4.62 | 5.13 |
| Bet365 | 1.60 | 4.20 | 5.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.55 | 4.10 | 4.75 |
| Betano | 1.62 | 4.30 | 4.90 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 4.50 | 4.75 |
| Dafabet | 1.62 | 4.50 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.61 | 4.50 | 5.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.64 | 4.55 | 4.92 |
| SBO | 1.56 | 3.94 | 4.30 |
| William Hill | 1.60 | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| pinnacle | 1.62 | 4.46 | 4.63 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
24 snapshots recorded, from .