Freiburg
vs
Union Berlin
Garuda Lions Prediction: Freiburg
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.85 vs 1.06.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Freiburg is the favourite, not a value bet.
Freiburg vs Union Berlin overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Freiburg vs Union Berlin
| Probability | Freiburg | Draw | Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69.6% | 17.9% | 12.5% |
| Market | 62.7% | 20.9% | 16.4% |
| Final | 64.4% | 20.2% | 15.4% |
| Edge | +1.7% | -0.8% | -1.0% |
Why Freiburg
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.85 vs 1.06.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.56, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.5% per unit staked (our 64.4% × 1.56 − 1).
Freiburg vs Union Berlin match preview
Freiburg enters this match against Union Berlin with a strong probability of winning at 64%. Their recent form shows a mixed bag with two wins and three losses in the last six matches, while Union Berlin has struggled, managing only one win and four draws in their recent outings. The expected goals for Freiburg stand at 2.95, indicating a robust attacking capability, while Union Berlin's expected goals are significantly lower at 1.19.
Historically, the head-to-head record favors Union Berlin, who have won three of the last six encounters, with Freiburg yet to secure a victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Freiburg, with a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% likelihood that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Freiburg and Union Berlin expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.91
Freiburg and Union Berlin attack and defence ratings
Freiburg
Union Berlin
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Hamburger SV vs Borussia M.Gladbach — team news & stats
- Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich
- Borussia Dortmund v SV Elversberg — match page
- RasenBallsport Leipzig v Augsburg — match page
- SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt
- VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen
- FC Cologne v Bayer Leverkusen — match page
- Hoffenheim vs FC Schalke 04 — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Freiburg vs Union Berlin markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Freiburg | 64.4% | 1.55 | +1.7% | 1.56 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.6% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.2% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.6% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Freiburg win | 48.6% | 2.06 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Freiburg | 64.4% |
| Draw | 20.2% | |
| Union Berlin | 15.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 23.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.2% |
| No | 32.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 35.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Freiburg win | 48.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.0% | |
| Loss | 31.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.6% |
| 3-1 | 8.0% | |
| 1-1 | 7.3% |
Freiburg vs Union Berlin stats
Freiburg and Union Berlin recent form
| Freiburg |
WWWLLL |
| Union Berlin |
DLDDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Freiburg and Union Berlin season so far
Freiburg record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Union Berlin record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Freiburg vs Union Berlin head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Freiburg | Union Berlin | Bundesliga | 0-1 |
| 2025-11-01 | Union Berlin | Freiburg | Bundesliga | 0-0 |
| 2025-03-30 | Freiburg | Union Berlin | Bundesliga | 1-2 |
| 2024-11-08 | Union Berlin | Freiburg | Bundesliga | 0-0 |
| 2024-05-18 | Union Berlin | Freiburg | Bundesliga | 2-1 |
| 2024-01-13 | Freiburg | Union Berlin | Bundesliga | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Freiburg vs Union Berlin odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 63.5%, draw 20.9%, away 15.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.56 | 4.72 | 6.11 |
| Bet365 | 1.48 | 4.50 | 6.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.45 | 4.20 | 5.75 |
| Betano | 1.50 | 4.50 | 6.10 |
| Betfair | 1.47 | 4.60 | 6.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.51 | 4.70 | 6.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.52 | 4.60 | 5.95 |
| Pinnacle | 1.50 | 4.71 | 6.36 |
| SBO | 1.43 | 4.07 | 5.51 |
| William Hill | 1.50 | 4.20 | 5.50 |
| pinnacle | 1.50 | 4.57 | 5.88 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
24 snapshots recorded, from .