Hamburger SV
vs
Borussia M.Gladbach
Garuda Lions Prediction: Borussia M.Gladbach
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyThe market prices Borussia M.Gladbach below our published probability: +2.4 percentage points of edge.
- RiskThe other two outcomes still add up to 63%.
Hamburger SV vs Borussia M.Gladbach overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Hamburger SV vs Borussia M.Gladbach
| Probability | Hamburger SV | Draw | Borussia M.Gladbach |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.3% | 27.1% | 44.6% |
| Market | 39.7% | 25.5% | 34.9% |
| Final | 36.8% | 25.9% | 37.3% |
| Edge | -2.8% | +0.4% | +2.4% |
Why Borussia M.Gladbach
- The market prices Borussia M.Gladbach below our published probability: +2.4 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 3.18, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +18.7% per unit staked (our 37.3% × 3.18 − 1).
Hamburger SV vs Borussia M.Gladbach match preview
Hamburger SV faces Borussia M.Gladbach in a Bundesliga clash with both teams having similar winning probabilities, each at 37%, while a draw stands at 26%. The expected goals suggest a competitive match, with Hamburger SV projected to score 1.56 and Borussia M.Gladbach 1.84. Recent form indicates Hamburger SV has been inconsistent with three losses followed by two wins, while Borussia M.Gladbach has drawn once and lost three of their last six matches.
The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-2 in favor of Borussia M.Gladbach, with a 9% probability. There is also a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% likelihood that both teams will score. In their last ten encounters, Hamburger SV has secured four wins, while Borussia M.Gladbach has two victories and four matches ended in a draw.
Hamburger SV and Borussia M.Gladbach team news
Hamburger SV news
- B. Nadir — muscle injury
- F. Vieira — thigh injury
- M. Vuskovic — doping
- N. Capaldo — muscle injury
- N. Remberg — knee injury
- Y. Poulsen — hip injury
Borussia M.Gladbach news
- E. Leopold — knee injury
- F. Fleck — muscle injury
- F. Honorat — muscle injury
- H. Bolin — muscle injury
- J. Leszczynski — knee injury
- K. Diks — personal reasons
- M. Nicolas — injury
- N. Kuhn — muscle injury
- T. Kleindienst — muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Hamburger SV and Borussia M.Gladbach expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.40
Hamburger SV and Borussia M.Gladbach attack and defence ratings
Hamburger SV
Borussia M.Gladbach
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich
- Borussia Dortmund v SV Elversberg — match page
- RasenBallsport Leipzig v Augsburg — match page
- SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt
- VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen
- FC Cologne v Bayer Leverkusen — match page
- Freiburg vs Union Berlin — team news & stats
- Hoffenheim vs FC Schalke 04 — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Hamburger SV vs Borussia M.Gladbach markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Borussia M.Gladbach | 37.3% | 2.68 | +2.4% | 3.18 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.0% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.0% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.1% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hamburger SV | 36.8% |
| Draw | 25.9% | |
| Borussia M.Gladbach | 37.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.0% |
| No | 35.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Borussia M.Gladbach win | 26.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.4% | |
| Loss | 54.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.3% |
| 1-2 | 9.2% | |
| 2-1 | 7.2% |
Hamburger SV vs Borussia M.Gladbach stats
Hamburger SV and Borussia M.Gladbach recent form
| Hamburger SV |
LLLWWW |
| Borussia M.Gladbach |
DWWLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Hamburger SV and Borussia M.Gladbach season so far
Hamburger SV record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Borussia M.Gladbach record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Hamburger SV vs Borussia M.Gladbach head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Hamburger SV | Borussia M.Gladbach | Bundesliga | 0-0 |
| 2025-08-24 | Borussia M.Gladbach | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga | 0-0 |
| 2018-05-12 | Hamburger SV | Borussia M.Gladbach | Bundesliga | 2-1 |
| 2017-12-15 | Borussia M.Gladbach | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga | 3-1 |
| 2017-03-12 | Hamburger SV | Borussia M.Gladbach | Bundesliga | 2-1 |
| 2017-03-01 | Hamburger SV | Borussia M.Gladbach | DFB Pokal | 1-2 |
| 2016-10-15 | Borussia M.Gladbach | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga | 0-0 |
| 2016-02-14 | Hamburger SV | Borussia M.Gladbach | Bundesliga | 3-2 |
| 2015-09-11 | Borussia M.Gladbach | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga | 0-3 |
| 2015-02-22 | Hamburger SV | Borussia M.Gladbach | Bundesliga | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Hamburger SV vs Borussia M.Gladbach odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.0%, draw 27.7%, away 31.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.42 | 3.47 | 3.18 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.50 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.35 | 3.45 | 3.00 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| Dafabet | 2.49 | 3.65 | 2.75 |
| Marathonbet | 2.38 | 3.42 | 3.14 |
| Pinnacle | 2.36 | 3.55 | 3.13 |
| SBO | 2.32 | 3.28 | 2.89 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
16 snapshots recorded, from .