Borussia Dortmund
vs
SV Elversberg
Garuda Lions Prediction: Borussia Dortmund
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.54 vs 1.03.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Borussia Dortmund is the favourite, not a value bet.
Borussia Dortmund vs SV Elversberg overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Borussia Dortmund vs SV Elversberg
| Probability | Borussia Dortmund | Draw | SV Elversberg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.3% | 22.1% | 18.6% |
| Market | 73.5% | 15.4% | 11.1% |
| Final | 69.9% | 17.1% | 13.0% |
| Edge | -3.6% | +1.7% | +1.9% |
Why Borussia Dortmund
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.54 vs 1.03.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.34, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.3% per unit staked (our 69.9% × 1.34 − 1).
Borussia Dortmund vs SV Elversberg match preview
Borussia Dortmund is favored to win against SV Elversberg with a 70% probability according to our model. The expected goals for Dortmund stand at 2.64, while Elversberg is projected to score 1.32. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance of occurring. Additionally, there is a strong likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 71% and both teams scoring at 68%.
In terms of recent form, Borussia Dortmund has recorded a draw, followed by three wins, another draw, and a loss, while SV Elversberg has a mixed record with two wins, three losses, and a draw in their last six matches. This context adds to the confidence grade of A for this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Borussia Dortmund and SV Elversberg expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.57
Borussia Dortmund and SV Elversberg attack and defence ratings
Borussia Dortmund
SV Elversberg
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Hamburger SV vs Borussia M.Gladbach — team news & stats
- Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich
- RasenBallsport Leipzig v Augsburg — match page
- SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt
- VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen
- FC Cologne v Bayer Leverkusen — match page
- Freiburg vs Union Berlin — team news & stats
- Hoffenheim vs FC Schalke 04 — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Borussia Dortmund vs SV Elversberg markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Borussia Dortmund | 69.9% | 1.43 | -3.6% | 1.34 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.3% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.9% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.0% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Borussia Dortmund win | 42.9% | 2.33 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Borussia Dortmund | 69.9% |
| Draw | 17.1% | |
| SV Elversberg | 13.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 28.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.9% |
| No | 32.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 82.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 30.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Borussia Dortmund win | 42.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.0% | |
| Loss | 36.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | |
| 3-1 | 7.3% |
Borussia Dortmund vs SV Elversberg stats
Borussia Dortmund and SV Elversberg recent form
| Borussia Dortmund |
WDWWWD |
| SV Elversberg |
WLLWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Borussia Dortmund and SV Elversberg season so far
Borussia Dortmund record
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
SV Elversberg record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Borussia Dortmund vs SV Elversberg head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Borussia Dortmund vs SV Elversberg odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 73.0%, draw 15.8%, away 11.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.32 | 6.45 | 9.75 |
| Bet365 | 1.30 | 5.75 | 8.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.25 | 5.50 | 8.50 |
| Betano | 1.34 | 5.70 | 7.70 |
| Betfair | 1.30 | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.33 | 6.20 | 8.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.29 | 6.20 | 9.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.30 | 6.32 | 8.62 |
| SBO | 1.28 | 5.22 | 6.57 |
| William Hill | 1.29 | 5.50 | 8.00 |
| pinnacle | 1.26 | 6.53 | 8.74 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
24 snapshots recorded, from .