VfB Stuttgart
vs
Werder Bremen
Garuda Lions Prediction: VfB Stuttgart
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 1.31.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — VfB Stuttgart is the favourite, not a value bet.
VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen overview
Garuda Lions analysis: VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen
| Probability | VfB Stuttgart | Draw | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.3% | 23.8% | 25.0% |
| Market | 61.9% | 19.5% | 18.6% |
| Final | 59.2% | 20.6% | 20.2% |
| Edge | -2.7% | +1.1% | +1.6% |
Why VfB Stuttgart
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 1.31.
Best available price on the pick: 1.70, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.7% per unit staked (our 59.2% × 1.70 − 1).
VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen match preview
VfB Stuttgart hosts Werder Bremen in this Bundesliga clash, with Stuttgart holding a 60% probability of winning according to our model. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of Stuttgart, with a 9% likelihood. Both teams are expected to contribute to the scoreline, as the model indicates a 71% chance that both will score, and a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match. Stuttgart's expected goals stand at 2.43, while Bremen's is at 1.52.
In terms of recent form, Stuttgart has recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, while Bremen has secured three wins, two draws, and one loss. The head-to-head results of the last six encounters show an even split, with both teams achieving two wins each and two matches ending in draws. The confidence grade for this matchup is rated as A.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.30
VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen attack and defence ratings
VfB Stuttgart
Werder Bremen
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Hamburger SV vs Borussia M.Gladbach — team news & stats
- Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich
- Borussia Dortmund v SV Elversberg — match page
- RasenBallsport Leipzig v Augsburg — match page
- SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt
- FC Cologne v Bayer Leverkusen — match page
- Freiburg vs Union Berlin — team news & stats
- Hoffenheim vs FC Schalke 04 — team news & stats
Before and after this match
VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | VfB Stuttgart | 59.2% | 1.69 | -2.7% | 1.70 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.6% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.0% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.8% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.5% | 1.87 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | VfB Stuttgart | 59.2% |
| Draw | 20.6% | |
| Werder Bremen | 20.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 28.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.0% |
| No | 29.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | VfB Stuttgart win | 26.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.9% | |
| Loss | 53.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.8% |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | |
| 2-2 | 6.8% |
VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen stats
VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen recent form
| VfB Stuttgart |
LWWLDL |
| Werder Bremen |
WLWDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen season so far
VfB Stuttgart record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
Werder Bremen record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | VfB Stuttgart | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | 1-1 |
| 2025-12-14 | Werder Bremen | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | 0-4 |
| 2025-04-13 | VfB Stuttgart | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | 1-2 |
| 2024-11-30 | Werder Bremen | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | 2-2 |
| 2024-04-21 | Werder Bremen | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | 2-1 |
| 2023-12-02 | VfB Stuttgart | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | 2-0 |
| 2023-02-05 | VfB Stuttgart | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | 0-2 |
| 2022-08-13 | Werder Bremen | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | 2-2 |
| 2021-04-04 | VfB Stuttgart | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | 1-0 |
| 2020-12-06 | Werder Bremen | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 57.5%, draw 20.8%, away 21.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.70 | 4.77 | 4.57 |
| Bet365 | 1.65 | 4.50 | 4.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.62 | 4.20 | 4.10 |
| Betano | 1.67 | 4.45 | 4.35 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| Dafabet | 1.68 | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.66 | 4.65 | 4.45 |
| Pinnacle | 1.69 | 4.68 | 4.34 |
| SBO | 1.58 | 4.14 | 3.95 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 4.40 | 4.33 |
| pinnacle | 1.49 | 5.10 | 5.29 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
24 snapshots recorded, from .