FC Cologne
vs
Bayer Leverkusen
Garuda Lions Prediction: Bayer Leverkusen
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Bayer Leverkusen is the favourite, not a value bet.
FC Cologne vs Bayer Leverkusen overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Cologne vs Bayer Leverkusen
| Probability | FC Cologne | Draw | Bayer Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.9% | 24.8% | 34.2% |
| Market | 21.8% | 22.0% | 56.2% |
| Final | 26.6% | 22.7% | 50.7% |
| Edge | +4.8% | +0.7% | -5.5% |
Why Bayer Leverkusen
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.88, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.6% per unit staked (our 50.7% × 1.88 − 1).
FC Cologne vs Bayer Leverkusen match preview
FC Cologne faces Bayer Leverkusen in a Bundesliga clash with a kickoff scheduled for November 8, 2026. According to our model, FC Cologne has a 27% chance of winning, while Bayer Leverkusen holds a 51% probability. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, with an expected goals tally of 2.16 for FC Cologne and 1.78 for Bayer Leverkusen. Recent form shows FC Cologne with mixed results, recording a win, draw, loss, win, loss, and draw in their last six matches. In contrast, Bayer Leverkusen has been in strong form, winning four of their last six games.
The model also indicates a high likelihood of goals, with a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 73% probability that both teams will score. In their last four encounters, Bayer Leverkusen has dominated, winning all matches against FC Cologne. This matchup presents an intriguing dynamic as both teams look to secure vital points in the league.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Cologne and Bayer Leverkusen expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.62
FC Cologne and Bayer Leverkusen attack and defence ratings
FC Cologne
Bayer Leverkusen
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Hamburger SV vs Borussia M.Gladbach — team news & stats
- Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich
- Borussia Dortmund v SV Elversberg — match page
- RasenBallsport Leipzig v Augsburg — match page
- SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt
- VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen
- Freiburg vs Union Berlin — team news & stats
- Hoffenheim vs FC Schalke 04 — team news & stats
Before and after this match
FC Cologne vs Bayer Leverkusen markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 50.7% | 1.97 | -5.5% | 1.88 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.8% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.8% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.3% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 68.6% | 1.46 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Cologne | 26.6% |
| Draw | 22.7% | |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 50.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 28.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.8% |
| No | 27.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 49.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bayer Leverkusen win | 16.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.4% | |
| Loss | 68.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.0% |
| 2-1 | 8.1% | |
| 1-2 | 7.4% |
FC Cologne vs Bayer Leverkusen stats
FC Cologne and Bayer Leverkusen recent form
| FC Cologne |
DWDLWL |
| Bayer Leverkusen |
LLWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Cologne and Bayer Leverkusen season so far
FC Cologne record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- 62% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bayer Leverkusen record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Cologne vs Bayer Leverkusen head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | FC Cologne | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga | 1-2 |
| 2025-12-13 | Bayer Leverkusen | FC Cologne | Bundesliga | 2-0 |
| 2024-03-03 | FC Cologne | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga | 0-2 |
| 2023-10-08 | Bayer Leverkusen | FC Cologne | Bundesliga | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FC Cologne vs Bayer Leverkusen odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 24.7%, draw 23.3%, away 52.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.92 | 4.36 | 1.88 |
| Bet365 | 4.00 | 4.10 | 1.80 |
| BetVictor | 3.50 | 3.90 | 1.80 |
| Betano | 3.85 | 4.05 | 1.83 |
| Betfair | 3.90 | 4.00 | 1.87 |
| Dafabet | 3.85 | 4.10 | 1.86 |
| Marathonbet | 3.82 | 4.25 | 1.83 |
| Pinnacle | 3.93 | 4.16 | 1.86 |
| SBO | 3.34 | 3.64 | 1.81 |
| William Hill | 3.70 | 4.00 | 1.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
16 snapshots recorded, from .