RasenBallsport Leipzig
vs
Augsburg
Garuda Lions Prediction: RasenBallsport Leipzig
2 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.90 vs 1.94.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — RasenBallsport Leipzig is the favourite, not a value bet.
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Augsburg overview
Garuda Lions analysis: RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Augsburg
| Probability | RasenBallsport Leipzig | Draw | Augsburg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.4% | 20.3% | 26.3% |
| Market | 64.6% | 18.4% | 17.0% |
| Final | 61.8% | 18.9% | 19.3% |
| Edge | -2.8% | +0.5% | +2.3% |
Why RasenBallsport Leipzig
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.90 vs 1.94.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.50, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.3% per unit staked (our 61.8% × 1.50 − 1).
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Augsburg match preview
RasenBallsport Leipzig enters this match with a strong probability of winning at 62%, while both Augsburg and a draw are at 19%. The expected goals for Leipzig stand at 2.96, compared to Augsburg's 1.90, indicating a potential advantage for the home side. Recent form shows Leipzig has won three of their last six matches, while Augsburg has struggled, managing only one win in their last six outings.
In terms of scoring, our model predicts a most likely scoreline of 2-1, with an 83% chance of over 2.5 goals and an 80% likelihood of both teams scoring. Historically, Leipzig has dominated their recent encounters, winning four of the last six matches against Augsburg, who have yet to secure a win in this timeframe.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
RasenBallsport Leipzig and Augsburg expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.85
RasenBallsport Leipzig and Augsburg attack and defence ratings
RasenBallsport Leipzig
Augsburg
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Hamburger SV vs Borussia M.Gladbach — team news & stats
- Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich
- Borussia Dortmund v SV Elversberg — match page
- SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt
- VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen
- FC Cologne v Bayer Leverkusen — match page
- Freiburg vs Union Berlin — team news & stats
- Hoffenheim vs FC Schalke 04 — team news & stats
Before and after this match
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Augsburg markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 61.8% | 1.62 | -2.8% | 1.50 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83.4% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 80.2% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 81.1% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.3% | 2.07 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 61.8% |
| Draw | 18.9% | |
| Augsburg | 19.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 16.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 80.2% |
| No | 19.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | RasenBallsport Leipzig win | 33.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.8% | |
| Loss | 48.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 7.0% |
| 2-2 | 6.7% | |
| 1-1 | 6.3% |
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Augsburg stats
RasenBallsport Leipzig and Augsburg recent form
| RasenBallsport Leipzig |
LWWWLL |
| Augsburg |
LWDLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
RasenBallsport Leipzig and Augsburg season so far
RasenBallsport Leipzig record
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- They average 4.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
Augsburg record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 1.8 at home.
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Augsburg head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | Augsburg | Bundesliga | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Augsburg | RasenBallsport Leipzig | Bundesliga | 0-6 |
| 2025-02-14 | Augsburg | RasenBallsport Leipzig | Bundesliga | 0-0 |
| 2024-09-28 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | Augsburg | Bundesliga | 4-0 |
| 2024-02-10 | Augsburg | RasenBallsport Leipzig | Bundesliga | 2-2 |
| 2023-09-16 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | Augsburg | Bundesliga | 3-0 |
| 2023-04-15 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | Augsburg | Bundesliga | 3-2 |
| 2022-10-22 | Augsburg | RasenBallsport Leipzig | Bundesliga | 3-3 |
| 2022-05-08 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | Augsburg | Bundesliga | 4-0 |
| 2021-12-15 | Augsburg | RasenBallsport Leipzig | Bundesliga | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Augsburg odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 64.7%, draw 18.8%, away 16.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.50 | 5.49 | 6.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.45 | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.40 | 5.00 | 5.50 |
| Betano | 1.50 | 5.00 | 5.50 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.48 | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.46 | 5.35 | 5.85 |
| Pinnacle | 1.48 | 5.31 | 5.84 |
| SBO | 1.41 | 4.66 | 4.94 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.80 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
16 snapshots recorded, from .