Augsburg
vs
Freiburg
Garuda Lions Prediction: Freiburg
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Freiburg is the favourite, not a value bet.
Augsburg vs Freiburg overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Augsburg vs Freiburg
| Probability | Augsburg | Draw | Freiburg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.2% | 22.9% | 33.9% |
| Market | 32.2% | 25.1% | 42.7% |
| Final | 34.9% | 24.5% | 40.5% |
| Edge | +2.8% | -0.5% | -2.2% |
Why Freiburg
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.27, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.0% per unit staked (our 40.5% × 2.27 − 1).
Augsburg vs Freiburg match preview
Augsburg faces Freiburg in their upcoming Bundesliga match, with the probabilities indicating a competitive encounter. Augsburg has a 35% chance of winning, while Freiburg holds a slight edge at 41%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 7%. Both teams are expected to contribute to the score, with a 77% likelihood of both scoring and a high 78% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match.
In terms of recent form, Augsburg has struggled with a record of D-L-D-L-D-W, while Freiburg has shown some resilience, with L-L-L-W-W-D in their last six matches. The expected goals suggest Augsburg may create more opportunities, with 2.43 expected goals compared to Freiburg's 1.94. The head-to-head record is balanced, with both teams winning two matches each and two draws in their last six encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Augsburg and Freiburg expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.38
Augsburg and Freiburg attack and defence ratings
Augsburg
Freiburg
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- SV Elversberg v Mainz 05 — match page
- Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim
- Borussia M.Gladbach v SC Paderborn 07 — match page
- Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart — team news & stats
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV
- FC Schalke 04 vs RasenBallsport Leipzig — team news & stats
- Union Berlin vs FC Cologne
- Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Augsburg vs Freiburg markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Freiburg | 40.5% | 2.47 | -2.2% | 2.27 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.1% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77.5% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.5% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 66.1% | 1.51 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Augsburg | 34.9% |
| Draw | 24.5% | |
| Freiburg | 40.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 21.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77.5% |
| No | 22.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Freiburg win | 18.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.2% | |
| Loss | 66.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 8.2% |
| 2-1 | 7.5% | |
| 2-2 | 7.3% |
Augsburg vs Freiburg stats
Augsburg and Freiburg recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Augsburg and Freiburg season so far
Augsburg record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 2.3 at home.
Freiburg record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 3.7 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Augsburg vs Freiburg head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | Augsburg | Freiburg | Bundesliga | 2-2 |
| 2025-08-23 | Freiburg | Augsburg | Bundesliga | 1-3 |
| 2025-03-02 | Augsburg | Freiburg | Bundesliga | 0-0 |
| 2024-10-19 | Freiburg | Augsburg | Bundesliga | 3-1 |
| 2024-02-25 | Augsburg | Freiburg | Bundesliga | 2-1 |
| 2023-10-01 | Freiburg | Augsburg | Bundesliga | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Augsburg vs Freiburg odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.1%, draw 25.0%, away 42.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.07 | 4.07 | 2.25 |
| Bet365 | 2.90 | 3.75 | 2.20 |
| BetVictor | 2.80 | 3.75 | 2.10 |
| Betano | 2.92 | 3.75 | 2.27 |
| Dafabet | 2.95 | 3.80 | 2.24 |
| Marathonbet | 2.99 | 3.96 | 2.19 |
| Pinnacle | 3.01 | 3.87 | 2.26 |
| SBO | 2.66 | 3.41 | 2.16 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 3.70 | 2.15 |
| pinnacle | 3.06 | 3.81 | 2.17 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
15 snapshots recorded, from .