FC Schalke 04
vs
RasenBallsport Leipzig
Garuda Lions Prediction: RasenBallsport Leipzig
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — RasenBallsport Leipzig is the favourite, not a value bet.
FC Schalke 04 vs RasenBallsport Leipzig overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Schalke 04 vs RasenBallsport Leipzig
| Probability | FC Schalke 04 | Draw | RasenBallsport Leipzig |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.0% | 25.4% | 37.6% |
| Market | 25.0% | 24.5% | 50.5% |
| Final | 28.0% | 24.7% | 47.3% |
| Edge | +3.0% | +0.2% | -3.2% |
Why RasenBallsport Leipzig
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.92, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.3% per unit staked (our 47.3% × 1.92 − 1).
FC Schalke 04 vs RasenBallsport Leipzig match preview
FC Schalke 04 faces RasenBallsport Leipzig in a Bundesliga clash with kickoff set for October 31, 2026. According to our model, FC Schalke 04 has a 29% probability of winning, while Leipzig holds a 47% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring at an 8% likelihood. Both teams are expected to score, with a 72% probability, and there is a strong expectation for over 2.5 goals at 70%.
In terms of recent form, Schalke has recorded two draws, two losses, and one win in their last five matches, while Leipzig has a mixed record with three wins and two losses in the same period. The expected goals for Schalke are 2.00, while Leipzig's expected goals stand at 1.82, indicating a competitive matchup ahead.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Schalke 04 and RasenBallsport Leipzig expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.82
FC Schalke 04 and RasenBallsport Leipzig attack and defence ratings
FC Schalke 04
RasenBallsport Leipzig
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- SV Elversberg v Mainz 05 — match page
- Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim
- Borussia M.Gladbach v SC Paderborn 07 — match page
- Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart — team news & stats
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV
- Augsburg v Freiburg — match page
- Union Berlin vs FC Cologne
- Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund — team news & stats
Before and after this match
FC Schalke 04 vs RasenBallsport Leipzig markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 47.3% | 2.12 | -3.2% | 1.92 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.0% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.7% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.3% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.4% | 1.60 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Schalke 04 | 28.0% |
| Draw | 24.7% | |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig | 47.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.7% |
| No | 28.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 52.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | RasenBallsport Leipzig win | 20.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.8% | |
| Loss | 62.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.5% |
| 1-2 | 8.0% | |
| 2-1 | 7.9% |
FC Schalke 04 vs RasenBallsport Leipzig stats
FC Schalke 04 and RasenBallsport Leipzig recent form
| FC Schalke 04 |
DLLDWD |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig |
WLLWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Schalke 04 and RasenBallsport Leipzig season so far
FC Schalke 04 record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.
RasenBallsport Leipzig record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They average 4.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
FC Schalke 04 vs RasenBallsport Leipzig head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
FC Schalke 04 vs RasenBallsport Leipzig odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 25.0%, draw 24.5%, away 50.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.78 | 4.36 | 1.92 |
| Bet365 | 4.10 | 3.75 | 1.83 |
| BetVictor | 3.50 | 3.90 | 1.80 |
| Betano | 3.80 | 3.85 | 1.90 |
| Dafabet | 3.85 | 3.85 | 1.88 |
| Marathonbet | 3.68 | 4.25 | 1.87 |
| Pinnacle | 4.17 | 3.72 | 1.90 |
| SBO | 3.24 | 3.70 | 1.82 |
| William Hill | 3.75 | 3.90 | 1.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .