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DFB Pokal · Full time ·Round of 32

Dynamo Dresden vs FC Schalke 04

2 – 0 Full time

37′Edin Džeko
44′Hwang Hee-Chan
53′Patrice Čović
60′Patrice Čović
60′Adil Aouchiche
61′Luca VozarKenan Karaman
67′Simon StraudiAlexander Rossipal
68′Patrice ČovićJakob Lemmer
70′Mertcan AyhanTimo Becker
70′Junior Dina EbimbeDejan Ljubičić
75′Niklas HauptmannChristoph Daferner
75′Vincent VermeijLuca Herrmann
77′Hwang Hee-ChanJunior Chukwubuike Adamu
82′Friedrich MüllerAhmet Muhamedbegovic
87′Nikola Katić
87′Nicolai Rapp
88′Christoph Daferner
90′Satoshi Tanaka

Rudolf-Harbig Stadion, DresdenReferee: Wolfgang Haslberger

Dynamo Dresden 25%
Draw 25%
FC Schalke 04 50%

Confidence: Medium  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

10 Shots 8
2 Shots on target 4
53 Possession % 47
2 Corners 4
12 Fouls 10
4 Saves 0
491 Accurate passes 439

Dynamo Dresden vs FC Schalke 04 overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Dynamo Dresden vs FC Schalke 04

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityDynamo DresdenDrawFC Schalke 04
Model14.1%22.4%63.5%
Market28.0%26.3%45.7%
Final24.5%25.3%50.1%
Edge-3.5%-1.0%+4.5%

Confidence: Medium · Edge = Final minus Market

Why FC Schalke 04

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 0.86.
  • The market prices FC Schalke 04 below our published probability: +4.5 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Dynamo Dresden ↓ / FC Schalke 04 → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 10% 11% 8% 6% 1 11% 10% 7% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 79%
3+ goals 55%
No goals 7%

Dynamo Dresden and FC Schalke 04 expected goals

Dynamo Dresden 0.86
FC Schalke 04 2.03

Total expected goals: 2.89

Dynamo Dresden and FC Schalke 04 attack and defence ratings

Dynamo Dresden

Attack 0.88 -12%
Defence 0.94 -6%

FC Schalke 04

Attack 0.83 -17%
Defence 0.93 -7%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Dynamo Dresden vs FC Schalke 04: result vs prediction

Dynamo Dresden 2 – 0 FC Schalke 04

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Round of 32 fixtures

DFB Pokal

Before and after this match

Dynamo Dresden vs FC Schalke 04 markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FC Schalke 04 50.1% 1.99 +4.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 55.2% 1.81 — —
Both teams to score Yes 51.1% 1.96 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 75.5% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 FC Schalke 04 win 40.0% 2.50 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Dynamo Dresden24.5%
Draw25.3%
FC Schalke 0450.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.555.2%
Under 2.544.8%
Both teams to scoreYes51.1%
No48.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)49.9%
12 (either side)74.7%
X2 (draw or away)75.5%
Handicap -1FC Schalke 04 win40.0%
Push (exactly one goal)23.5%
Loss36.5%
Correct score (top 3)0-211.4%
1-110.7%
0-110.3%

Dynamo Dresden vs FC Schalke 04 stats

Dynamo Dresden and FC Schalke 04 recent form

newest first
Dynamo Dresden LWDLDL
FC Schalke 04 DLLDWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Dynamo Dresden vs FC Schalke 04 head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

1Dynamo Dresden wins 1Draws 3FC Schalke 04 wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-07FC Schalke 04Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga2-2
2025-08-31Dynamo DresdenFC Schalke 042. Bundesliga0-1
2022-04-01Dynamo DresdenFC Schalke 042. Bundesliga1-2
2021-10-23FC Schalke 04Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga3-0
2014-08-18Dynamo DresdenFC Schalke 04DFB Pokal2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Dynamo Dresden vs FC Schalke 04 odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 28.0%, draw 26.3%, away 45.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.34 3.56 2.04
Bet365 3.40 3.50 2.05
BetVictor 3.13 3.60 2.00
Betano 3.40 3.75 2.15
Betfair 3.10 3.40 2.00
Dafabet 3.40 3.65 2.12
Marathonbet 3.34 3.56 2.02
Pinnacle 3.38 3.76 2.09
SBO 3.00 3.44 2.06
William Hill 3.10 3.40 2.05

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.34 ▼ -0.26
X 3.56 ▼ -0.22
2 2.05 ▲ +0.22

16 snapshots recorded, from .