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DFB Pokal · Full time ·Round of 32

Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen

3 – 2 Full time

6′Serhou Guirassy
17′Carney Chukwuemeka
24′Amos Pieper
49′Joey Veerman
57′Arthur Augusto de Matos Soares
59′Marco GrüllSenne Lynen
59′Eren DinkciMitchell Weiser
59′Cédric IttenNiclas Füllkrug
59′Dariusz StalmachLudovit Reis
64′Julian Ryerson
65′Niclas Füllkrug
68′Niclas Füllkrug
71′Joey VeermanMarcel Sabitzer
71′Carney ChukwuemekaEthan Nwaneri
71′Julian RyersonDaniel Svensson
84′Serhou GuirassyFábio Silva
90′Marcel Sabitzer

Signal Iduna Park, DortmundReferee: Robert Schroder

Borussia Dortmund 56%
Draw 21%
Werder Bremen 23%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

12 Shots 12
4 Shots on target 6
56 Possession % 44
4 Corners 3
14 Fouls 9
1 Offsides 1
4 Saves 1
526 Accurate passes 393

Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityBorussia DortmundDrawWerder Bremen
Model23.4%27.0%49.6%
Market66.6%18.6%14.8%
Final55.8%20.7%23.5%
Edge-10.8%+2.1%+8.7%

Confidence: High · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Borussia Dortm ↓ / Werder Bremen → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 10% 9% 1 13% 10% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 76%
3+ goals 51%
No goals 8%

Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen expected goals

Borussia Dortmund 1.08
Werder Bremen 1.62

Total expected goals: 2.70

Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen attack and defence ratings

Borussia Dortmund

Attack 1.09 +9%
Defence 0.65 -35%

Werder Bremen

Attack 0.93 -7%
Defence 0.99 -1%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen: result vs prediction

Borussia Dortmund 3 – 2 Werder Bremen

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Round of 32 fixtures

DFB Pokal

Before and after this match

Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Borussia Dortmund 55.8% 1.79 -10.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 50.5% 1.98 — —
Both teams to score Yes 53.8% 1.86 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 79.3% 1.26 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 75.9% 1.32 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Borussia Dortmund55.8%
Draw20.7%
Werder Bremen23.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550.5%
Under 2.549.5%
Both teams to scoreYes53.8%
No46.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)76.5%
12 (either side)79.3%
X2 (draw or away)44.2%
Handicap -1Borussia Dortmund win9.6%
Push (exactly one goal)14.6%
Loss75.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.9%
0-19.9%
1-29.6%

Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen stats

Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen recent form

newest first
Borussia Dortmund WWDLDW
Werder Bremen WDDWDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6Borussia Dortmund wins 3Draws 1Werder Bremen wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-10-09Borussia DortmundWerder BremenBundesliga2-2
2026-05-16Werder BremenBorussia DortmundBundesliga0-2
2026-01-13Borussia DortmundWerder BremenBundesliga3-0
2025-01-25Borussia DortmundWerder BremenBundesliga2-2
2024-08-31Werder BremenBorussia DortmundBundesliga0-0
2024-03-09Werder BremenBorussia DortmundBundesliga1-2
2023-10-20Borussia DortmundWerder BremenBundesliga1-0
2023-02-11Werder BremenBorussia DortmundBundesliga0-2
2022-08-20Borussia DortmundWerder BremenBundesliga2-3
2021-04-18Borussia DortmundWerder BremenBundesliga4-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 66.6%, draw 18.6%, away 14.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.45 5.25 6.70
Bet365 1.40 4.75 7.00
BetVictor 1.40 4.75 6.00
Betano 1.44 5.10 6.30
Betfair 1.33 5.00 6.00
Dafabet 1.45 5.20 6.40
Marathonbet 1.44 5.25 6.80
Pinnacle 1.42 5.31 6.48
SBO 1.34 4.43 5.90
William Hill 1.40 4.75 6.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.41 ▲ +0.07
X 5.05 ▲ +0.05
2 6.35 ▼ -0.79

14 snapshots recorded, from .