Borussia M.Gladbach
vs
SC Paderborn 07
Garuda Lions Prediction: Borussia M.Gladbach
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.20 vs 1.71.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Borussia M.Gladbach is the favourite, not a value bet.
Borussia M.Gladbach vs SC Paderborn 07 overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Borussia M.Gladbach vs SC Paderborn 07
| Probability | Borussia M.Gladbach | Draw | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.0% | 24.8% | 32.2% |
| Market | 49.6% | 23.7% | 26.7% |
| Final | 48.0% | 24.0% | 28.1% |
| Edge | -1.7% | +0.3% | +1.4% |
Why Borussia M.Gladbach
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.20 vs 1.71.
Best available price on the pick: 1.96, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.0% per unit staked (our 48.0% × 1.96 − 1).
Borussia M.Gladbach vs SC Paderborn 07 match preview
Borussia M.Gladbach faces SC Paderborn 07 in a Bundesliga clash, with our model giving Borussia M.Gladbach a 49% chance of winning, while SC Paderborn has a 27% probability. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Borussia M.Gladbach, with an 8% likelihood. The expected goals for Borussia M.Gladbach stand at 2.20, compared to SC Paderborn's 1.71.
In terms of recent form, Borussia M.Gladbach has struggled, recording one win in their last six matches, while SC Paderborn has seen slightly better results with two wins in their last six. Our model indicates a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 72% chance for both teams to score, suggesting an engaging match is on the horizon.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Borussia M.Gladbach and SC Paderborn 07 expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.92
Borussia M.Gladbach and SC Paderborn 07 attack and defence ratings
Borussia M.Gladbach
SC Paderborn 07
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- SV Elversberg v Mainz 05 — match page
- Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim
- Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart — team news & stats
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV
- Augsburg v Freiburg — match page
- FC Schalke 04 vs RasenBallsport Leipzig — team news & stats
- Union Berlin vs FC Cologne
- Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Borussia M.Gladbach vs SC Paderborn 07 markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Borussia M.Gladbach | 48.0% | 2.09 | -1.7% | 1.96 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.4% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.4% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.0% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.0% | 1.75 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Borussia M.Gladbach | 48.0% |
| Draw | 24.0% | |
| SC Paderborn 07 | 28.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 28.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.4% |
| No | 27.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Borussia M.Gladbach win | 25.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.9% | |
| Loss | 57.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.1% |
| 2-1 | 8.4% | |
| 1-2 | 7.2% |
Borussia M.Gladbach vs SC Paderborn 07 stats
Borussia M.Gladbach and SC Paderborn 07 recent form
| Borussia M.Gladbach |
WLLLLL |
| SC Paderborn 07 |
WDLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Borussia M.Gladbach and SC Paderborn 07 season so far
Borussia M.Gladbach record
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
SC Paderborn 07 record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.
Borussia M.Gladbach vs SC Paderborn 07 head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Borussia M.Gladbach vs SC Paderborn 07 odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 49.6%, draw 23.7%, away 26.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.96 | 4.26 | 3.71 |
| Bet365 | 1.85 | 3.90 | 3.60 |
| BetVictor | 1.83 | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 1.93 | 4.00 | 3.55 |
| Dafabet | 1.92 | 4.00 | 3.55 |
| Marathonbet | 1.91 | 4.15 | 3.62 |
| Pinnacle | 1.96 | 4.10 | 3.56 |
| SBO | 1.87 | 3.62 | 3.14 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.90 | 3.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .