Union Berlin
vs
FC Cologne
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Cologne
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyThe market prices FC Cologne below our published probability: +2.1 percentage points of edge.
- RiskThe other two outcomes still add up to 62%.
Union Berlin vs FC Cologne overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Union Berlin vs FC Cologne
| Probability | Union Berlin | Draw | FC Cologne |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29.1% | 26.5% | 44.3% |
| Market | 37.9% | 26.3% | 35.8% |
| Final | 35.7% | 26.4% | 37.9% |
| Edge | -2.2% | +0.1% | +2.1% |
Why FC Cologne
- The market prices FC Cologne below our published probability: +2.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.73, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.5% per unit staked (our 37.9% × 2.73 − 1).
Union Berlin vs FC Cologne match preview
Union Berlin faces FC Cologne in a Bundesliga clash with a predicted scoreline of 1-2, reflecting a 9% likelihood according to our model. The probabilities suggest a close contest, with Union Berlin at 36% to win, a draw at 26%, and FC Cologne slightly favored at 38%. Both teams are expected to score, with a 67% chance, and there is a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match.
In terms of recent form, Union Berlin has recorded two draws and four losses in their last six matches, while FC Cologne has seen a draw, two losses, a win, and another draw in their last six outings. The expected goals indicate Union Berlin at 1.64 and FC Cologne at 1.84, hinting at a competitive match ahead. Historically, in their last four encounters, Union Berlin has secured two wins, while FC Cologne has one win and one draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Union Berlin and FC Cologne expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.48
Union Berlin and FC Cologne attack and defence ratings
Union Berlin
FC Cologne
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- SV Elversberg v Mainz 05 — match page
- Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim
- Borussia M.Gladbach v SC Paderborn 07 — match page
- Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart — team news & stats
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV
- Augsburg v Freiburg — match page
- FC Schalke 04 vs RasenBallsport Leipzig — team news & stats
- Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Union Berlin vs FC Cologne markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Cologne | 37.9% | 2.64 | +2.1% | 2.73 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.3% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.8% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.7% | 1.80 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Union Berlin | 35.7% |
| Draw | 26.4% | |
| FC Cologne | 37.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.8% |
| No | 33.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Cologne win | 25.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.0% | |
| Loss | 55.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.8% |
| 1-2 | 9.1% | |
| 2-1 | 7.3% |
Union Berlin vs FC Cologne stats
Union Berlin and FC Cologne recent form
| Union Berlin |
DDWLLL |
| FC Cologne |
DLWLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Union Berlin and FC Cologne season so far
Union Berlin record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
FC Cologne record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- 64% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Union Berlin vs FC Cologne head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Union Berlin | FC Cologne | Bundesliga | 2-2 |
| 2025-12-20 | FC Cologne | Union Berlin | Bundesliga | 0-1 |
| 2024-05-11 | FC Cologne | Union Berlin | Bundesliga | 3-2 |
| 2023-12-20 | Union Berlin | FC Cologne | Bundesliga | 2-0 |
| 2023-03-04 | Union Berlin | FC Cologne | Bundesliga | 0-0 |
| 2022-09-11 | FC Cologne | Union Berlin | Bundesliga | 0-1 |
| 2022-04-01 | Union Berlin | FC Cologne | Bundesliga | 1-0 |
| 2021-11-07 | FC Cologne | Union Berlin | Bundesliga | 2-2 |
| 2021-03-13 | Union Berlin | FC Cologne | Bundesliga | 2-1 |
| 2020-11-22 | FC Cologne | Union Berlin | Bundesliga | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Union Berlin vs FC Cologne odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.9%, draw 26.3%, away 35.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.58 | 3.84 | 2.72 |
| Bet365 | 2.50 | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| BetVictor | 2.38 | 3.50 | 2.55 |
| Betano | 2.52 | 3.60 | 2.67 |
| Dafabet | 2.50 | 3.65 | 2.65 |
| Marathonbet | 2.51 | 3.74 | 2.65 |
| Pinnacle | 2.53 | 3.61 | 2.73 |
| SBO | 2.32 | 3.28 | 2.53 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 3.50 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .