Garuda Lions
Today
UEFA Champions League · Full time ·League Stage - 4

Manchester United vs Roma

3 – 2 Full time

11′Matias Soule
17′Donyell Malen
20′Matias Soule
20′Bruno Fernandes
21′Devyne RenschEmanuele Lulli
35′Emanuele Lulli
42′Donyell Malen
45′Rodrigo MoraNiccolò Pisilli
51′Carlos BalebaYouri Tielemans
58′Bruno Fernandes
70′Ayden Heaven
75′Ayden HeavenLisandro Martínez
75′Amad DialloShea Lacey
75′Gianluca ManciniDaniele Ghilardi
76′Mario HermosoEvan Ndicka
78′Donyell MalenSantiago Thomas Castro
78′Harry Maguire
83′Matheus Cunha
86′Matheus Cunha
87′Matheus Cunha
88′Harry MaguireMatthijs De Ligt
88′Bruno FernandesMason Mount
90′Matheus Cunha

Old Trafford, ManchesterReferee: Jesus Gil Manzano

Manchester United 41%
Draw 23%
Roma 37%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

15 Shots 7
6 Shots on target 4
52 Possession % 48
3 Corners 1
11 Fouls 14
1 Offsides 2
2 Saves 2
417 Accurate passes 374

Manchester United vs Roma overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Manchester United vs Roma

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityManchester UnitedDrawRoma
Model29.0%20.5%50.5%
Market44.5%23.6%31.9%
Final40.6%22.8%36.5%
Edge-3.9%-0.8%+4.6%

Confidence: High · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Manchester Uni ↓ / Roma → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 4% 1 7% 8% 6% 7% 2 6% 7% 6% 6% 3 4% 4% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 93%
3+ goals 80%
No goals 2%

Manchester United and Roma expected goals

Manchester United 1.86
Roma 2.44

Total expected goals: 4.29

Manchester United and Roma attack and defence ratings

Manchester United

Attack 0.96 -4%
Defence 1.23 +23%

Roma

Attack 1.52 +52%
Defence 1.00 +0%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Manchester United vs Roma: result vs prediction

Manchester United 3 – 2 Roma

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other League Stage - 4 fixtures

UEFA Champions League

Before and after this match

Manchester United vs Roma markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Manchester United 40.6% 2.46 -3.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 80.1% 1.25 — —
Both teams to score Yes 77.5% 1.29 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 77.2% 1.30 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 70.9% 1.41 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Manchester United40.6%
Draw22.8%
Roma36.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.580.1%
Under 2.519.9%
Both teams to scoreYes77.5%
No22.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)63.5%
12 (either side)77.2%
X2 (draw or away)59.4%
Handicap -1Manchester United win15.0%
Push (exactly one goal)14.0%
Loss70.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-27.5%
2-27.0%
1-16.8%

Manchester United vs Roma stats

Manchester United and Roma recent form

newest first
Manchester United LLLDLD
Roma WWDWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Manchester United vs Roma head-to-head

Last 2 meetings

1Manchester United wins 0Draws 1Roma wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2021-05-06RomaManchester UnitedUEFA Europa League3-2
2021-04-29Manchester UnitedRomaUEFA Europa League6-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Manchester United vs Roma odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 44.2%, draw 23.8%, away 32.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.23 4.12 3.09
Bet365 2.15 4.10 2.90
BetVictor 2.15 3.90 3.00
Betano 2.20 4.15 3.05
Betfair 2.15 4.00 3.00
Dafabet 2.33 3.95 2.80
Marathonbet 2.19 4.05 3.04
Pinnacle 2.19 4.08 3.08
SBO 2.15 3.49 2.80
William Hill 2.15 3.80 2.90

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.15 ▼ -0.15
X 4.05 ▲ +0.24
2 3.00 ▲ +0.25

14 snapshots recorded, from .