Manchester United
vs
Aston Villa
Garuda Lions Prediction: Manchester United
2 – 1 Predicted score · 6% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Manchester United is the favourite, not a value bet.
Manchester United vs Aston Villa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Manchester United vs Aston Villa
| Probability | Manchester United | Draw | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.6% | 21.4% | 41.0% |
| Market | 41.9% | 25.9% | 32.2% |
| Final | 40.8% | 24.8% | 34.4% |
| Edge | -1.1% | -1.1% | +2.2% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.23, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.0% per unit staked (our 40.8% × 2.23 − 1).
Manchester United vs Aston Villa match preview
Manchester United faces Aston Villa in an intriguing Premier League clash. According to our model, Manchester United has a 41% chance of winning, while Aston Villa stands at 34%. The most likely scoreline is predicted to be 2-1 in favor of Manchester United, with an 82% probability of over 2.5 goals and an 80% chance that both teams will score. Expected goals suggest a competitive match, with Manchester United at 2.06 and Aston Villa slightly higher at 2.26.
In terms of recent form, Manchester United has struggled with three consecutive losses, followed by two draws. In contrast, Aston Villa has shown strong performance, recording four wins in their last six matches. Historically, Manchester United has been dominant in their recent encounters, winning four of the last six meetings, with Aston Villa securing just one victory.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Manchester United and Aston Villa expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.87
Manchester United and Aston Villa attack and defence ratings
Manchester United
Aston Villa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Manchester United vs Aston Villa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Manchester United | 40.8% | 2.45 | -1.1% | 2.23 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81.7% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 80.1% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.2% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.4% | 1.68 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Manchester United | 40.8% |
| Draw | 24.8% | |
| Aston Villa | 34.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 18.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 80.1% |
| No | 19.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Manchester United win | 23.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.3% | |
| Loss | 59.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-2 | 7.2% |
| 1-1 | 6.8% | |
| 1-2 | 6.6% |
Manchester United vs Aston Villa stats
Manchester United and Aston Villa recent form
| Manchester United |
WLLLDL |
| Aston Villa |
LDLWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Manchester United and Aston Villa season so far
Manchester United record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 56% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aston Villa record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Manchester United vs Aston Villa head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Manchester United | Aston Villa | Premier League | 3-1 |
| 2025-12-21 | Aston Villa | Manchester United | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2025-05-25 | Manchester United | Aston Villa | Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2024-10-06 | Aston Villa | Manchester United | Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2024-02-11 | Aston Villa | Manchester United | Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2023-12-26 | Manchester United | Aston Villa | Premier League | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Manchester United vs Aston Villa odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.1%, draw 25.6%, away 30.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.23 | 3.94 | 3.18 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.60 | 3.30 |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.70 | 3.10 |
| Betano | 2.15 | 3.60 | 3.25 |
| Betfair | 2.15 | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| Dafabet | 2.21 | 3.70 | 3.15 |
| Marathonbet | 2.17 | 3.84 | 3.10 |
| Pinnacle | 2.21 | 3.83 | 3.14 |
| SBO | 2.16 | 3.24 | 2.78 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| winamax_fr | 1.92 | 3.75 | 2.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
26 snapshots recorded, from .