Everton
vs
Coventry
Garuda Lions Prediction: Everton
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 1.15.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Everton is the favourite, not a value bet.
Everton vs Coventry overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Everton vs Coventry
| Probability | Everton | Draw | Coventry |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.0% | 23.7% | 21.3% |
| Market | 55.5% | 24.0% | 20.5% |
| Final | 55.4% | 23.9% | 20.7% |
| Edge | -0.1% | -0.1% | +0.2% |
Why Everton
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 1.15.
Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.1% per unit staked (our 55.4% × 1.75 − 1).
Everton vs Coventry match preview
Everton faces Coventry in a Premier League clash on November 6, 2026. According to our model, Everton holds a 55% probability of winning, while Coventry has a 21% chance, and a draw stands at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Everton, with an expected goals tally of 1.91 for Everton and 1.15 for Coventry.
Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Everton recording two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, while Coventry has three wins and three losses in their last six games. Our model indicates a 65% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance that both teams will score in the match. The confidence grade for this prediction is A.
Everton and Coventry team news
Everton news
- J. Grealish — coach's decision
- T. George — injury
Coventry news
- A. Amenda — calf injury
- B. Thomas — calf injury
- H. Wright — muscle injury
- J. Eccles — ankle injury
- L. Woolfenden — knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Everton and Coventry expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.06
Everton and Coventry attack and defence ratings
Everton
Coventry
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Everton vs Coventry markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Everton | 55.4% | 1.81 | -0.1% | 1.75 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.2% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.3% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.3% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.3% | 2.26 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Everton | 55.4% |
| Draw | 23.9% | |
| Coventry | 20.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.3% |
| No | 35.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Everton win | 34.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.5% | |
| Loss | 44.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.6% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 2-0 | 7.6% |
Everton vs Coventry stats
Everton and Coventry recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Everton and Coventry season so far
Everton record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Coventry record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.
Everton vs Coventry head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-30 | Coventry | Everton | Friendlies Clubs | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Everton vs Coventry odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 56.3%, draw 24.0%, away 19.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.74 | 4.22 | 4.93 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.65 | 3.90 | 4.75 |
| Betano | 1.75 | 4.00 | 4.90 |
| Betfair | 1.70 | 3.90 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.74 | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.71 | 4.15 | 4.85 |
| Pinnacle | 1.71 | 3.99 | 5.13 |
| SBO | 1.68 | 3.79 | 4.62 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.90 | 4.60 |
| winamax_fr | 1.52 | 3.75 | 4.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
26 snapshots recorded, from .