Nottingham Forest
vs
Manchester City
Garuda Lions Prediction: Manchester City
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Manchester City is the favourite, not a value bet.
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City
| Probability | Nottingham Forest | Draw | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.6% | 22.2% | 42.2% |
| Market | 20.5% | 23.6% | 55.9% |
| Final | 24.3% | 23.3% | 52.5% |
| Edge | +3.8% | -0.3% | -3.4% |
Why Manchester City
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.74, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.7% per unit staked (our 52.5% × 1.74 − 1).
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City match preview
Nottingham Forest faces Manchester City in an intriguing Premier League matchup. According to our model, Nottingham Forest has a 24% chance of winning, while Manchester City is favored with a 52% probability. The expected goals for Nottingham Forest stand at 1.90, compared to Manchester City's 2.17. Our model predicts a likely scoreline of 1-2, with a 7% chance of occurring.
Recent form shows Nottingham Forest struggling with five losses in their last six matches, while Manchester City has had a mixed run, winning two of their last six. Both teams are expected to score, with our model indicating a 78% likelihood for both teams to find the net. The confidence grade for this match is rated as A, reflecting a strong forecast based on the data.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nottingham Forest and Manchester City expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.93
Nottingham Forest and Manchester City attack and defence ratings
Nottingham Forest
Manchester City
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Manchester City | 52.5% | 1.91 | -3.4% | 1.74 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.5% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77.5% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.7% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.1% | 1.64 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nottingham Forest | 24.3% |
| Draw | 23.3% | |
| Manchester City | 52.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 21.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77.5% |
| No | 22.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 47.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 75.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Manchester City win | 22.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.8% | |
| Loss | 61.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 7.7% |
| 1-2 | 7.3% | |
| 2-2 | 7.3% |
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City stats
Nottingham Forest and Manchester City recent form
| Nottingham Forest |
LDLLLW |
| Manchester City |
WLDLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nottingham Forest and Manchester City season so far
Nottingham Forest record
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.
Manchester City record
- They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
- 54% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | Manchester City | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2025-12-27 | Nottingham Forest | Manchester City | Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2025-04-27 | Nottingham Forest | Manchester City | England FA Cup | 0-2 |
| 2025-03-08 | Nottingham Forest | Manchester City | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2024-12-04 | Manchester City | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | 3-0 |
| 2024-04-28 | Nottingham Forest | Manchester City | Premier League | 0-2 |
| 2023-09-23 | Manchester City | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2023-02-18 | Nottingham Forest | Manchester City | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2022-08-31 | Manchester City | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | 6-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 20.4%, draw 23.7%, away 55.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.88 | 4.32 | 1.73 |
| Bet365 | 4.75 | 4.00 | 1.70 |
| BetVictor | 4.60 | 4.00 | 1.65 |
| Betano | 4.65 | 3.95 | 1.72 |
| Betfair | 4.75 | 3.90 | 1.70 |
| Dafabet | 4.70 | 4.10 | 1.72 |
| Marathonbet | 4.80 | 4.25 | 1.70 |
| Pinnacle | 4.64 | 4.11 | 1.74 |
| SBO | 4.02 | 3.58 | 1.67 |
| William Hill | 4.33 | 3.90 | 1.73 |
| sport888 | 4.33 | 4.00 | 1.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
26 snapshots recorded, from .