Ipswich
vs
Bournemouth
Garuda Lions Prediction: Bournemouth
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.53 vs 1.12.
- RiskThe other two outcomes still add up to 46%.
Ipswich vs Bournemouth overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ipswich vs Bournemouth
| Probability | Ipswich | Draw | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 12.8% | 18.5% | 68.7% |
| Market | 25.5% | 25.6% | 48.9% |
| Final | 22.3% | 23.8% | 53.9% |
| Edge | -3.2% | -1.8% | +4.9% |
Why Bournemouth
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.53 vs 1.12.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Bournemouth below our published probability: +4.9 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.25, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +21.2% per unit staked (our 53.9% × 2.25 − 1).
Ipswich vs Bournemouth match preview
Ipswich faces Bournemouth in a Premier League clash on November 8, 2026. According to our model, Ipswich has a 22% chance of winning, while Bournemouth is favored with a 54% probability. The most likely scoreline is 1-2 in favor of Bournemouth, with an expected goals tally of 1.06 for Ipswich and 2.63 for Bournemouth. The model also indicates a 72% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance that both teams will score.
Recent form shows Ipswich with two draws and four losses in their last six matches, while Bournemouth has been in excellent form, winning all six of their most recent games. In their last two head-to-head encounters, each team has secured one victory. The confidence grade for this match is A, indicating a strong forecast.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ipswich and Bournemouth expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.66
Ipswich and Bournemouth attack and defence ratings
Ipswich
Bournemouth
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Leeds v Tottenham — match page
- Fulham v Newcastle United — match page
- Arsenal vs Hull City — team news & stats
- Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City — team news & stats
- Brighton v Brentford — match page
- Crystal Palace vs Liverpool — team news & stats
- Sunderland vs Chelsea
- Manchester United vs Aston Villa
Before and after this match
Ipswich vs Bournemouth markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bournemouth | 53.9% | 1.86 | +4.9% | 2.25 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.1% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.3% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 77.7% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Bournemouth win | 45.4% | 2.20 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ipswich | 22.3% |
| Draw | 23.8% | |
| Bournemouth | 53.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 27.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.3% |
| No | 36.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 46.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 77.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bournemouth win | 45.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.3% | |
| Loss | 34.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 9.1% |
| 0-2 | 8.2% | |
| 1-1 | 8.0% |
Ipswich vs Bournemouth stats
Ipswich and Bournemouth recent form
| Ipswich |
DDLWLL |
| Bournemouth |
WWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ipswich and Bournemouth season so far
Ipswich record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
Bournemouth record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ipswich vs Bournemouth head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-02 | Bournemouth | Ipswich | Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2024-12-08 | Ipswich | Bournemouth | Premier League | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ipswich vs Bournemouth odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 25.0%, draw 25.6%, away 49.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.90 | 3.96 | 1.97 |
| Bet365 | 3.80 | 3.70 | 1.91 |
| BetVictor | 3.70 | 3.70 | 1.87 |
| Betano | 3.75 | 3.70 | 1.95 |
| Betfair | 4.00 | 3.70 | 1.91 |
| Dafabet | 3.80 | 3.80 | 1.95 |
| Marathonbet | 3.80 | 3.85 | 1.92 |
| Pinnacle | 4.07 | 3.75 | 1.93 |
| SBO | 3.32 | 3.28 | 1.91 |
| William Hill | 3.75 | 3.60 | 1.91 |
| sport888 | 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
26 snapshots recorded, from .