Brighton
vs
Brentford
Garuda Lions Prediction: Brighton
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.62 vs 0.91.
- RiskThe other two outcomes still add up to 47%.
Brighton vs Brentford overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Brighton vs Brentford
| Probability | Brighton | Draw | Brentford |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62.7% | 19.4% | 17.9% |
| Market | 49.2% | 24.6% | 26.1% |
| Final | 52.6% | 23.3% | 24.1% |
| Edge | +3.4% | -1.3% | -2.0% |
Why Brighton
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.62 vs 0.91.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Brighton below our published probability: +3.4 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.98, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +4.1% per unit staked (our 52.6% × 1.98 − 1).
Brighton vs Brentford match preview
Brighton hosts Brentford in a Premier League clash with Brighton holding a 53% probability of winning according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an expected goals tally of 2.52 for Brighton and 1.42 for Brentford. Both teams are expected to score in 71% of simulations, and there is a strong likelihood of over 2.5 goals, at 77%.
In terms of recent form, Brighton has recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, while Brentford has achieved three wins, two draws, and one loss. The head-to-head record over the last six encounters favors Brighton, who have won three times, compared to Brentford's one victory and two draws. The confidence grade for this match is A.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Brighton and Brentford expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.54
Brighton and Brentford attack and defence ratings
Brighton
Brentford
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Brighton vs Brentford markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brighton | 52.6% | 1.90 | +3.4% | 1.98 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77.0% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.3% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.7% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Brighton win | 55.4% | 1.80 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brighton | 52.6% |
| Draw | 23.3% | |
| Brentford | 24.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 23.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.3% |
| No | 28.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Brighton win | 55.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.5% | |
| Loss | 25.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.5% |
| 3-1 | 7.5% | |
| 1-1 | 7.4% |
Brighton vs Brentford stats
Brighton and Brentford recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Brighton and Brentford season so far
Brighton record
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.9 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 2.5 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Brentford record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Brighton vs Brentford head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Brentford | Brighton | Premier League | 0-2 |
| 2025-11-22 | Brighton | Brentford | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2025-04-19 | Brentford | Brighton | Premier League | 4-2 |
| 2024-12-27 | Brighton | Brentford | Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2024-04-03 | Brentford | Brighton | Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2023-12-06 | Brighton | Brentford | Premier League | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Brighton vs Brentford odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 49.8%, draw 24.4%, away 25.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.98 | 4.05 | 3.78 |
| Bet365 | 1.90 | 3.80 | 3.70 |
| BetVictor | 1.87 | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| Betano | 1.93 | 3.90 | 3.60 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 3.90 | 3.80 |
| Dafabet | 1.96 | 3.90 | 3.70 |
| Marathonbet | 1.93 | 3.94 | 3.68 |
| Pinnacle | 1.97 | 3.91 | 3.72 |
| SBO | 1.90 | 3.38 | 3.26 |
| William Hill | 1.91 | 3.75 | 3.50 |
| winamax_fr | 1.70 | 3.60 | 3.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
26 snapshots recorded, from .