Brentford
vs
Nottingham Forest
Garuda Lions Prediction: Brentford
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Brentford is the favourite, not a value bet.
Brentford vs Nottingham Forest overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Brentford vs Nottingham Forest
| Probability | Brentford | Draw | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.5% | 22.9% | 31.6% |
| Market | 47.6% | 25.9% | 26.5% |
| Final | 47.1% | 25.2% | 27.8% |
| Edge | -0.5% | -0.8% | +1.3% |
Why Brentford
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.07, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.5% per unit staked (our 47.1% × 2.07 − 1).
Brentford vs Nottingham Forest match preview
Brentford hosts Nottingham Forest in a Premier League clash with Brentford holding a 47% probability of winning, while Nottingham Forest sits at 28%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Brentford, with an expected goals tally of 2.07 for Brentford compared to 1.72 for Nottingham Forest. Both teams are likely to score, with a 74% probability, and there is a strong expectation for over 2.5 goals at 75%.
In terms of recent form, Brentford has recorded a mixed bag of results with two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last six matches. Nottingham Forest, on the other hand, has struggled with only one win in their last six games, including three consecutive losses. The head-to-head record shows Brentford with two wins, one draw, and Nottingham Forest with three wins in their last six encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Brentford and Nottingham Forest expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.82
Brentford and Nottingham Forest attack and defence ratings
Brentford
Nottingham Forest
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Brentford vs Nottingham Forest markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brentford | 47.1% | 2.12 | -0.5% | 2.07 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.0% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.5% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.5% | 1.83 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brentford | 47.1% |
| Draw | 25.2% | |
| Nottingham Forest | 27.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 25.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.5% |
| No | 25.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Brentford win | 27.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.3% | |
| Loss | 54.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 8.7% |
| 2-1 | 8.1% | |
| 2-2 | 7.2% |
Brentford vs Nottingham Forest stats
Brentford and Nottingham Forest recent form
| Brentford |
DLDWWD |
| Nottingham Forest |
DLLLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Brentford and Nottingham Forest season so far
Brentford record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nottingham Forest record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
Brentford vs Nottingham Forest head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | Brentford | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | 0-2 |
| 2025-08-17 | Nottingham Forest | Brentford | Premier League | 3-1 |
| 2025-05-01 | Nottingham Forest | Brentford | Premier League | 0-2 |
| 2024-12-21 | Brentford | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | 0-2 |
| 2024-01-20 | Brentford | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | 3-2 |
| 2023-10-01 | Nottingham Forest | Brentford | Premier League | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Brentford vs Nottingham Forest odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.6%, draw 25.9%, away 26.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.07 | 3.88 | 3.65 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.60 |
| BetVictor | 1.93 | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| Betano | 2.00 | 3.70 | 3.60 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.75 | 3.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.01 | 3.65 | 3.60 |
| Marathonbet | 2.01 | 3.78 | 3.55 |
| Pinnacle | 1.99 | 3.88 | 3.63 |
| SBO | 1.95 | 3.24 | 3.26 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
17 snapshots recorded, from .