Bournemouth
vs
Leeds
Garuda Lions Prediction: Bournemouth
2 – 0 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.81 vs 0.91.
- RiskThe other two outcomes still add up to 47%.
Bournemouth vs Leeds overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bournemouth vs Leeds
| Probability | Bournemouth | Draw | Leeds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 77.7% | 14.6% | 7.7% |
| Market | 44.2% | 27.9% | 27.9% |
| Final | 52.5% | 24.6% | 22.9% |
| Edge | +8.4% | -3.3% | -5.1% |
Why Bournemouth
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.81 vs 0.91.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Bournemouth below our published probability: +8.4 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.24, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +17.7% per unit staked (our 52.5% × 2.24 − 1).
Bournemouth vs Leeds match preview
Bournemouth hosts Leeds in a Premier League clash with a favorable outlook for the home side. Our model assigns Bournemouth a 53% probability of winning, while Leeds has a 23% chance. The expected goals tally suggests a strong performance from Bournemouth, with an expected 2.81 goals compared to Leeds' 0.91. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, occurring at a rate of 9%.
In terms of recent form, Bournemouth has secured three wins in their last six matches, while Leeds has struggled, managing just one win in the same period. The head-to-head record shows that in their last two encounters, there have been no wins for either side, with both matches ending in draws. Our model indicates a 74% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Bournemouth and Leeds expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.72
Bournemouth and Leeds attack and defence ratings
Bournemouth
Leeds
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Bournemouth vs Leeds markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bournemouth | 52.5% | 1.90 | +8.4% | 2.24 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.0% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.5% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.1% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Bournemouth win | 59.2% | 1.69 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bournemouth | 52.5% |
| Draw | 24.6% | |
| Leeds | 22.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 26.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.5% |
| No | 42.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bournemouth win | 59.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.4% | |
| Loss | 22.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 9.2% |
| 3-0 | 9.0% | |
| 2-1 | 8.4% |
Bournemouth vs Leeds stats
Bournemouth and Leeds recent form
| Bournemouth |
WWWWLL |
| Leeds |
DDLDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Bournemouth and Leeds season so far
Bournemouth record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Leeds record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Bournemouth vs Leeds head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Bournemouth | Leeds | Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2025-09-27 | Leeds | Bournemouth | Premier League | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Bournemouth vs Leeds odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.2%, draw 27.9%, away 27.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.24 | 3.52 | 3.52 |
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.25 |
| Betano | 2.18 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.17 | 3.45 | 3.35 |
| Marathonbet | 2.18 | 3.42 | 3.42 |
| Pinnacle | 2.14 | 3.45 | 3.61 |
| SBO | 2.12 | 3.11 | 2.96 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.30 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
17 snapshots recorded, from .