Tottenham
vs
Crystal Palace
Garuda Lions Prediction: Tottenham
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 1.51.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Tottenham is the favourite, not a value bet.
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tottenham vs Crystal Palace
| Probability | Tottenham | Draw | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.3% | 23.2% | 25.6% |
| Market | 61.4% | 21.5% | 17.0% |
| Final | 58.9% | 22.0% | 19.2% |
| Edge | -2.5% | +0.4% | +2.1% |
Why Tottenham
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 1.51.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.0% per unit staked (our 58.9% × 1.75 − 1).
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace match preview
Tottenham enters this match with a 59% probability of winning, supported by their recent form of two wins, two draws, and one loss in the last six matches. The expected goals for Tottenham stand at 2.06, indicating a strong offensive capability, while Crystal Palace is projected to score 1.51 goals. The most likely scoreline according to our model is 2-1, with a 9% likelihood.
Crystal Palace's recent performance shows a less favorable trend, with one win, three losses, and two draws in their last six matches. Despite this, their head-to-head record against Tottenham in the last six encounters is balanced, with both teams securing three wins each. Our model suggests a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 71% and both teams scoring at 70%, highlighting the potential for an engaging match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tottenham and Crystal Palace expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.56
Tottenham and Crystal Palace attack and defence ratings
Tottenham
Crystal Palace
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tottenham | 58.9% | 1.70 | -2.5% | 1.75 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.9% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.1% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.8% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.7% | 2.05 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tottenham | 58.9% |
| Draw | 22.0% | |
| Crystal Palace | 19.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 29.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.1% |
| No | 29.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Tottenham win | 31.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.7% | |
| Loss | 48.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.6% |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | |
| 2-2 | 6.8% |
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace stats
Tottenham and Crystal Palace recent form
| Tottenham |
WWDLLD |
| Crystal Palace |
LDLLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Tottenham and Crystal Palace season so far
Tottenham record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
Crystal Palace record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-05 | Tottenham | Crystal Palace | Premier League | 1-3 |
| 2025-12-28 | Crystal Palace | Tottenham | Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2025-05-11 | Tottenham | Crystal Palace | Premier League | 0-2 |
| 2024-10-27 | Crystal Palace | Tottenham | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2024-03-02 | Tottenham | Crystal Palace | Premier League | 3-1 |
| 2023-10-27 | Crystal Palace | Tottenham | Premier League | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 61.2%, draw 21.7%, away 17.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.58 | 4.62 | 6.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.53 | 4.20 | 5.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.50 | 4.33 | 5.75 |
| Betano | 1.57 | 4.35 | 5.50 |
| Betfair | 1.50 | 4.40 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.55 | 4.50 | 5.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.54 | 4.50 | 5.85 |
| Pinnacle | 1.55 | 4.69 | 5.56 |
| SBO | 1.46 | 4.04 | 5.13 |
| William Hill | 1.53 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sport888 | 1.75 | 3.70 | 4.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
17 snapshots recorded, from .