Coventry
vs
Sunderland
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sunderland
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Sunderland is the favourite, not a value bet.
Coventry vs Sunderland overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Coventry vs Sunderland
| Probability | Coventry | Draw | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.8% | 26.0% | 25.2% |
| Market | 32.0% | 27.8% | 40.2% |
| Final | 36.2% | 27.3% | 36.4% |
| Edge | +4.2% | -0.4% | -3.7% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.46, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.3% per unit staked (our 36.4% × 2.46 − 1).
Coventry vs Sunderland match preview
Coventry and Sunderland are set to clash in the Premier League, with both teams showing mixed recent form. Coventry's last six matches include two wins and four losses, while Sunderland has drawn twice and lost four of their last six games. The probabilities indicate a close contest, with both teams at 36% to win and a draw at 27%.
Our model predicts an expected goals tally of 1.74 for Coventry and 1.28 for Sunderland, suggesting a slight edge for the home side. The most likely scoreline is 1-2 in favor of Sunderland, with a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% likelihood that both teams will score. This matchup promises to be competitive, reflecting the even probabilities and recent performances of both sides.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Coventry and Sunderland expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.02
Coventry and Sunderland attack and defence ratings
Coventry
Sunderland
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Coventry vs Sunderland markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sunderland | 36.4% | 2.74 | -3.7% | 2.46 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.1% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.2% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.7% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Coventry | 36.2% |
| Draw | 27.3% | |
| Sunderland | 36.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.2% |
| No | 37.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sunderland win | 11.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14.0% | |
| Loss | 74.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 2-0 | 7.5% |
Coventry vs Sunderland stats
Coventry and Sunderland recent form
| Coventry |
LLWWLL |
| Sunderland |
DDLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Coventry and Sunderland season so far
Coventry record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
Sunderland record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Coventry vs Sunderland head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Coventry vs Sunderland odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.0%, draw 27.8%, away 40.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.46 |
| Bet365 | 2.88 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
| BetVictor | 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
| Betano | 3.05 | 3.40 | 2.35 |
| Betfair | 2.88 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
| Dafabet | 3.00 | 3.45 | 2.35 |
| Marathonbet | 3.02 | 3.40 | 2.39 |
| Pinnacle | 3.04 | 3.44 | 2.42 |
| SBO | 2.82 | 3.12 | 2.19 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 3.30 | 2.38 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
17 snapshots recorded, from .