Liverpool
vs
Arsenal
Garuda Lions Prediction: Arsenal
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Arsenal is the favourite, not a value bet.
Liverpool vs Arsenal overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Liverpool vs Arsenal
| Probability | Liverpool | Draw | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.9% | 23.4% | 37.7% |
| Market | 31.3% | 27.4% | 41.3% |
| Final | 33.2% | 26.4% | 40.4% |
| Edge | +1.9% | -1.0% | -0.9% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.35, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.0% per unit staked (our 40.4% × 2.35 − 1).
Liverpool vs Arsenal match preview
Liverpool faces Arsenal in a Premier League clash with both teams showing strong recent form. Liverpool has recorded four wins and one loss in their last six matches, while Arsenal has secured four wins, one draw, and one loss in the same period. The probabilities indicate a competitive match, with Liverpool at 33%, a draw at 26%, and Arsenal leading at 40%.
The expected goals for Liverpool stand at 1.86, while Arsenal is slightly ahead at 1.92. Our model suggests a likely scoreline of 1-2 in favor of Arsenal, with both teams expected to score, reflected in a 74% probability for over 2.5 goals. The head-to-head record shows Liverpool with one win, Arsenal with one win, and four draws in their last six encounters, highlighting the evenly matched nature of this fixture.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Liverpool and Arsenal expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.78
Liverpool and Arsenal attack and defence ratings
Liverpool
Arsenal
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Liverpool vs Arsenal markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arsenal | 40.4% | 2.47 | -0.9% | 2.35 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.3% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.4% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.3% | 1.61 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Liverpool | 33.2% |
| Draw | 26.4% | |
| Arsenal | 40.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 25.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.4% |
| No | 25.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Arsenal win | 21.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.8% | |
| Loss | 62.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.0% |
| 2-1 | 7.6% | |
| 1-2 | 7.5% |
Liverpool vs Arsenal stats
Liverpool and Arsenal recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Liverpool and Arsenal season so far
Liverpool record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
Arsenal record
- They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Liverpool vs Arsenal head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-08 | Arsenal | Liverpool | Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2025-08-31 | Liverpool | Arsenal | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2025-05-11 | Liverpool | Arsenal | Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2024-10-27 | Arsenal | Liverpool | Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2024-02-04 | Arsenal | Liverpool | Premier League | 3-1 |
| 2023-12-23 | Liverpool | Arsenal | Premier League | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Liverpool vs Arsenal odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 31.3%, draw 27.4%, away 41.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.20 | 3.59 | 2.35 |
| Bet365 | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.25 |
| BetVictor | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.25 |
| Betano | 3.05 | 3.50 | 2.30 |
| Betfair | 2.88 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
| Dafabet | 3.05 | 3.50 | 2.28 |
| Marathonbet | 3.12 | 3.50 | 2.29 |
| Pinnacle | 3.03 | 3.63 | 2.30 |
| SBO | 2.85 | 3.16 | 2.16 |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
15 snapshots recorded, from .