Aston Villa
vs
Fulham
Garuda Lions Prediction: Aston Villa
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.19 vs 1.50.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Aston Villa is the favourite, not a value bet.
Aston Villa vs Fulham overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Aston Villa vs Fulham
| Probability | Aston Villa | Draw | Fulham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.5% | 22.1% | 23.4% |
| Market | 48.7% | 25.5% | 25.8% |
| Final | 50.1% | 24.6% | 25.2% |
| Edge | +1.5% | -0.8% | -0.6% |
Why Aston Villa
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.19 vs 1.50.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.04, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.3% per unit staked (our 50.1% × 2.04 − 1).
Aston Villa vs Fulham match preview
Aston Villa and Fulham face off in a Premier League match with Aston Villa holding a 51% probability of winning, compared to Fulham's 25% and a 24% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Aston Villa, with a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 71% likelihood that both teams will score. Expected goals are calculated at 2.19 for Aston Villa and 1.49 for Fulham.
In terms of recent form, Aston Villa has secured four wins and a draw in their last six matches, while Fulham has three wins, two draws, and one loss. The head-to-head record over the last six encounters shows Aston Villa with five wins and Fulham with one. The confidence grade for this matchup is rated A, indicating a strong forecast for Aston Villa.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Aston Villa and Fulham expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.68
Aston Villa and Fulham attack and defence ratings
Aston Villa
Fulham
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Aston Villa vs Fulham markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aston Villa | 50.1% | 1.99 | +1.5% | 2.04 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.0% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.0% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.4% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.5% | 2.20 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aston Villa | 50.1% |
| Draw | 24.6% | |
| Fulham | 25.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 27.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.0% |
| No | 29.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Aston Villa win | 34.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.7% | |
| Loss | 45.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 8.9% |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | |
| 3-1 | 6.8% |
Aston Villa vs Fulham stats
Aston Villa and Fulham recent form
| Aston Villa |
WWWWDW |
| Fulham |
WWLDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Aston Villa and Fulham season so far
Aston Villa record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fulham record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aston Villa vs Fulham head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Fulham | Aston Villa | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Aston Villa | Fulham | Premier League | 3-1 |
| 2025-05-03 | Aston Villa | Fulham | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2024-10-19 | Fulham | Aston Villa | Premier League | 1-3 |
| 2024-02-17 | Fulham | Aston Villa | Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2023-11-12 | Aston Villa | Fulham | Premier League | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Aston Villa vs Fulham odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 48.7%, draw 25.7%, away 25.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.96 | 3.96 | 3.94 |
| Bet365 | 1.90 | 3.80 | 3.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.90 | 3.70 | 3.60 |
| Betano | 1.95 | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.97 | 3.70 | 3.65 |
| Marathonbet | 1.91 | 3.86 | 3.84 |
| Pinnacle | 1.95 | 3.88 | 3.76 |
| SBO | 1.95 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.75 | 3.40 |
| onexbet | 2.04 | 3.62 | 4.03 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
17 snapshots recorded, from .