Bournemouth
vs
Aston Villa
3 – 0 Full time
| 7′ | Amine Adli | ||
| 12′ | Emiliano Buendía | ||
| 16′ | Juanlu Sánchez | ||
| 25′ | Ben Gannon-Doak | ||
| 33′ | Brian Madjo | ||
| 45′ | Marcus TavernierJustin Kluivert | ||
| 45′ | Amine AdliRayan Vitor Simplício Rocha | ||
| 51′ | Lewis Cook | ||
| 54′ | João Gomes | ||
| 58′ | George HemmingsAlejandro Garnacho | ||
| 58′ | Ibrahim Mbaye Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha | ||
| 63′ | Ben Gannon-DoakDavid Brooks | ||
| 63′ | Ryan ChristieTyler Adams | ||
| 67′ | Lewis Cook | ||
| 69′ | Álvaro Rodríguez | ||
| 70′ | Emiliano BuendíaRoss Barkley | ||
| 70′ | Leon GoretzkaJohn McGinn | ||
| 75′ | Brian MadjoTammy Abraham | ||
| 80′ | Álvaro RodríguezEli Kroupi |
Match stats
| 19 | Shots | 17 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 49 | Possession % | 51 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Offsides | 1 |
| 5 | Saves | 4 |
| 406 | Accurate passes | 431 |
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bournemouth vs Aston Villa
| Probability | Bournemouth | Draw | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.7% | 22.8% | 24.5% |
| Market | 41.1% | 26.4% | 32.5% |
| Final | 44.0% | 25.5% | 30.5% |
| Edge | +2.9% | -0.9% | -2.0% |
Why Bournemouth
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 1.39.
- The market prices Bournemouth below our published probability: +2.9 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Bournemouth and Aston Villa expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.49
Bournemouth and Aston Villa attack and defence ratings
Bournemouth
Aston Villa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa: result vs prediction
Bournemouth 3 – 0 Aston Villa
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Round of 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bournemouth | 44.0% | 2.27 | +2.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.8% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.9% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.5% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.3% | 2.11 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bournemouth | 44.0% |
| Draw | 25.5% | |
| Aston Villa | 30.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.9% |
| No | 33.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bournemouth win | 32.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.7% | |
| Loss | 47.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | |
| 2-0 | 6.7% |
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa stats
Bournemouth and Aston Villa recent form
| Bournemouth |
WWWWLL |
| Aston Villa |
WWWWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-07 | Bournemouth | Aston Villa | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2025-11-09 | Aston Villa | Bournemouth | Premier League | 4-0 |
| 2025-05-10 | Bournemouth | Aston Villa | Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2024-10-26 | Aston Villa | Bournemouth | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2024-04-21 | Aston Villa | Bournemouth | Premier League | 3-1 |
| 2023-12-03 | Bournemouth | Aston Villa | Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2023-03-18 | Aston Villa | Bournemouth | Premier League | 3-0 |
| 2022-08-06 | Bournemouth | Aston Villa | Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2020-02-01 | Bournemouth | Aston Villa | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2019-08-17 | Aston Villa | Bournemouth | Premier League | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.1%, draw 26.4%, away 32.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.30 | 3.58 | 3.07 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.90 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.90 |
| Betano | 2.32 | 3.65 | 2.92 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.50 | 2.90 |
| Dafabet | 2.29 | 3.60 | 3.05 |
| Marathonbet | 2.28 | 3.58 | 3.08 |
| Pinnacle | 2.36 | 3.64 | 2.99 |
| SBO | 2.30 | 3.30 | 2.70 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
82 snapshots recorded, from .