Manchester United
vs
Bournemouth
Garuda Lions Prediction: Bournemouth
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.42 vs 1.19.
- RiskThe other two outcomes still add up to 62%.
Manchester United vs Bournemouth overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Manchester United vs Bournemouth
| Probability | Manchester United | Draw | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17.2% | 20.8% | 62.0% |
| Market | 43.7% | 26.1% | 30.2% |
| Final | 37.1% | 24.8% | 38.2% |
| Edge | -6.6% | -1.3% | +7.9% |
Why Bournemouth
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.42 vs 1.19.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Bournemouth below our published probability: +7.9 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 4.42, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +68.7% per unit staked (our 38.2% × 4.42 − 1).
Manchester United vs Bournemouth match preview
Manchester United faces Bournemouth in their upcoming Premier League match, with the probabilities indicating a 45% chance of a Manchester United win, a 24% chance of a draw, and a 30% chance for Bournemouth. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Manchester United, with a 67% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance that both teams will score.
In terms of recent form, Manchester United has struggled, recording four draws and two losses in their last six matches, while Bournemouth has shown better performance with two wins, two losses, and a draw in the same period. The expected goals suggest Manchester United at 1.37 and Bournemouth at 2.02, indicating a competitive matchup. The head-to-head record reveals that Manchester United has not won any of their last six encounters with Bournemouth, managing four draws and two losses.
Manchester United and Bournemouth team news
Manchester United news
- A. Heaven — illness
- B. Sesko — leg injury
- K. Mainoo — injury
- L. Martinez — muscle injury
- L. Shaw — injury
- M. Rashford — hip injury
- M. Ugarte — knee injury
- P. Dorgu — hamstring injury
- T. Heaton — abdominal strain
Bournemouth news
- A. Scott — thigh injury
- A. Toth — muscle injury
- E. J. Kroupi — foot injury
- J. Araujo — thigh injury
- V. Milosavljevic — lacking match fitness
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Manchester United and Bournemouth expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.61
Manchester United and Bournemouth attack and defence ratings
Manchester United
Bournemouth
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Manchester United vs Bournemouth markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bournemouth | 38.2% | 2.62 | +7.9% | 4.42 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.0% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.2% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.2% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Bournemouth win | 41.6% | 2.40 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Manchester United | 37.1% |
| Draw | 24.8% | |
| Bournemouth | 38.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 29.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.2% |
| No | 33.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bournemouth win | 41.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.4% | |
| Loss | 38.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 9.3% |
| 1-1 | 8.9% | |
| 1-3 | 7.5% |
Manchester United vs Bournemouth stats
Manchester United and Bournemouth recent form
| Manchester United |
LDLDDL |
| Bournemouth |
WWWLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Manchester United and Bournemouth season so far
Manchester United record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 80% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bournemouth record
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Manchester United vs Bournemouth head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | Bournemouth | Manchester United | Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2025-12-15 | Manchester United | Bournemouth | Premier League | 4-4 |
| 2025-04-27 | Bournemouth | Manchester United | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2024-12-22 | Manchester United | Bournemouth | Premier League | 0-3 |
| 2024-04-13 | Bournemouth | Manchester United | Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2023-12-09 | Manchester United | Bournemouth | Premier League | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Manchester United vs Bournemouth odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.9%, draw 26.0%, away 30.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.22 | 3.75 | 3.35 |
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.60 | 3.25 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.60 | 3.10 |
| Betano | 2.18 | 3.70 | 3.15 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.60 | 3.10 |
| Dafabet | 2.23 | 3.65 | 3.15 |
| Marathonbet | 2.16 | 3.65 | 3.26 |
| Pinnacle | 2.22 | 3.70 | 3.20 |
| SBO | 2.06 | 3.30 | 2.92 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| onexbet | 1.79 | 4.36 | 4.42 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
26 snapshots recorded, from .