Como
vs
Manchester United
Garuda Lions Prediction: Como
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Como vs Manchester United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Como vs Manchester United
| Probability | Como | Draw | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58.7% | 20.1% | 21.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 58.7% | 20.1% | 21.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Como
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.46 vs 1.47.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Como vs Manchester United match preview
Como enters this UEFA Champions League fixture against Manchester United with a strong recent form, having won four of their last five matches, while Manchester United has struggled, recording two losses in their last three outings. The model gives Como a 59% probability of winning, with the most likely scoreline predicted to be 2-1 in favor of Como, occurring at a rate of 9%.
The expected goals suggest a high-scoring match, with Como projected to score 2.46 and Manchester United 1.47. The model indicates a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 71% probability that both teams will score. With a confidence grade of A, Como appears to be in a favorable position heading into this encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Como and Manchester United expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.93
Como and Manchester United attack and defence ratings
Como
Manchester United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other League Stage - 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Como vs Manchester United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Como | 58.7% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.1% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.1% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 79.9% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.3% | 2.42 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Como | 58.7% |
| Draw | 20.1% | |
| Manchester United | 21.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 24.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.1% |
| No | 28.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Como win | 38.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.0% | |
| Loss | 41.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.7% |
| 1-1 | 7.8% | |
| 3-1 | 7.2% |
Como vs Manchester United stats
Como and Manchester United recent form
| Como |
LWWWWD |
| Manchester United |
DLLWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.