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UEFA Champions League · Full time ·League Stage - 3

Como vs Manchester United

4 – 1 Full time

2′Nico Paz
25′Andrey Santos
45′Matheus CunhaAmad Diallo
45′Andrey SantosCarlos Baleba
49′Anastasios Douvikas
50′Carlos Baleba
57′Nico Paz
64′Martin BaturinaMaxence Caqueret
67′Bruno FernandesJoshua Zirkzee
69′Lucas Da CunhaKaiki Bruno
76′Jacobo Ramón
79′Matthijs De LigtHarry Amass
80′Maximo PerroneAlberto Dossena
80′Nico PazSamuele Ricci
80′Yan CoutoIvan Smolcic
84′Marc-Oliver Kempf
86′Bryan MbeumoShea Lacey
86′Shea Lacey
90′Joshua Zirkzee

Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, ComoReferee: Sven Jablonski

Como 45%
Draw 24%
Manchester United 31%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

11 Shots 13
8 Shots on target 4
55 Possession % 45
1 Corners 4
10 Fouls 11
2 Offsides 1
3 Saves 4
600 Accurate passes 473

Como vs Manchester United overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Como vs Manchester United

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityComoDrawManchester United
Model58.6%20.2%21.2%
Market40.4%25.3%34.3%
Final44.9%24.0%31.0%
Edge+4.6%-1.3%-3.3%

Confidence: High · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Como

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.45 vs 1.46.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Como below our published probability: +4.6 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Como ↓ / Manchester Uni → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 8% 5% 2 6% 9% 6% 3 5% 7% 5% 4+ 5% 8% 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 91%
3+ goals 75%
No goals 3%

Como and Manchester United expected goals

Como 2.45
Manchester United 1.46

Total expected goals: 3.90

Como and Manchester United attack and defence ratings

Como

Attack 1.31 +31%
Defence 1.05 +5%

Manchester United

Attack 1.07 +7%
Defence 0.97 -3%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Como vs Manchester United: result vs prediction

Como 4 – 1 Manchester United

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other League Stage - 3 fixtures

UEFA Champions League

Before and after this match

Como vs Manchester United markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Como 44.9% 2.23 +4.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 74.7% 1.34 — —
Both teams to score Yes 70.8% 1.41 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 76.0% 1.32 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 41.4% 2.42 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Como44.9%
Draw24.0%
Manchester United31.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.574.7%
Under 2.525.3%
Both teams to scoreYes70.8%
No29.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)69.0%
12 (either side)76.0%
X2 (draw or away)55.1%
Handicap -1Como win38.5%
Push (exactly one goal)20.1%
Loss41.4%
Correct score (top 3)2-18.8%
1-17.9%
3-17.2%

Como vs Manchester United stats

Como and Manchester United recent form

newest first
Como WLDLWW
Manchester United DLDDLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Como vs Manchester United head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Como vs Manchester United odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 40.4%, draw 25.3%, away 34.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.42 3.88 2.90
Bet365 2.30 3.80 2.80
BetVictor 2.38 3.80 2.70
Betano 2.45 3.85 2.80
Betfair 2.38 3.80 2.80
Dafabet 2.35 3.70 2.90
Marathonbet 2.36 3.78 2.82
Pinnacle 2.46 3.80 2.79
SBO 2.38 3.55 2.64
William Hill 2.30 3.60 2.75

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.38 ▲ +0.11
X 3.80 ▲ +0.15
2 2.80 ▼ -0.11

14 snapshots recorded, from .